Bitcoin prices have shown a minor rebound following a wave of recent selling, although wider technical indicators still exhibit a degree of caution. The cryptocurrency, often referred to as the “crypto king,” had recently seen a breakdown from a triangle pattern, which has raised concerns about possible further declines in value.
Despite the brief stabilization, underlying metrics indicate that Bitcoin may face prolonged weakness. A significant indicator, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA), has dipped below the critical level of 1. This ratio gauges whether investors are predominantly realizing profits or losses over a rolling 90-day period. A reading below this threshold suggests that losses are currently prevailing among investors. Historically, such breaks have lasted for six months or longer before any notable recovery. Historically, reclaiming levels above 1 has often correlated with a return of constructive liquidity to the crypto market. Until such a shift occurs, the general sentiment may remain bearish, and capital inflows could be constrained.
In terms of on-chain dynamics, there has been a noticeable shift in the behavior of large Bitcoin holders. Specifically, addresses containing between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have been gradually decreasing their exposure. Over the last 12 days, their share of the total Bitcoin supply has slipped from 21.7% to 21.2%. This represents a reduction of nearly 90,000 BTC, valued at around $5.8 billion. While the pace of this selling appears controlled, the ongoing distribution by large holders could weigh heavily on price stability, potentially limiting any upside movements in the near future.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $65,475, having bounced back from a support level of $62,525 within the last 24 hours. The previous triangle breakdown had suggested a potential decline of around 14%; however, the immediate downward momentum seems to be waning. Should bearish macro signals persist, Bitcoin might revisit the $62,525 support level. A decisive breach below this point could lead to testing the psychological threshold of $60,000, alarming many investors and potentially triggering a wave of panic selling.
On a more optimistic note, if new buying interest emerges at current levels, it could alter the short-term momentum. A breakout above the resistance level of $67,394 would invalidate the aforementioned triangle pattern. Sustained strength beyond this point could signify an improving market structure for Bitcoin and potentially advocate for a temporary bullish recovery, despite ongoing liquidity concerns.
