September has traditionally presented challenges for Ethereum, marked by an average loss of over 12% in median returns. This year mirrored that trend in its early week, with ETF outflows and a cautious broader market contributing to downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. Ethereum started the month trading around $4,406 but faced a drop to lows of $4,261 before regaining some ground.
Despite these initial struggles, signs of a potential turnaround for September 2025 are beginning to emerge. Three bullish indicators could change the usual pattern and set Ethereum on a path toward new highs.
One of the most significant developments is the increased activity among whale investors. Data shows that the supply held by whale wallets (those holding large amounts of cryptocurrencies outside exchanges) surged from 95.72 million ETH to 99.41 million ETH in less than 24 hours, representing an influx of approximately 3.69 million ETH valued at over $16 billion. This strong accumulation reflects confidence in the asset, contrasting sharply with the hesitance seen among retail traders.
Simultaneously, short-term holders are reportedly exiting the market, contributing to what analysts note as a changing dynamic. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for short-term holders dropped to 0.21—the second-lowest figure in a month. Historical patterns indicate that when NUPL reaches such lows, it often signals a rebound, as weak hands sell off their holdings while more confident investors remain.
The current conditions echo a similar scenario from August, when a low NUPL of 0.22 preceded a significant 20% rally in Ethereum’s price. The combination of whale accumulation and the exit of weaker holders paints a bullish outlook, suggesting that even a modest price movement of around 10% could propel Ethereum closer to testing new highs.
Technical analysis also bolsters the bullish narrative. Ethereum’s daily price chart reveals a hidden bullish divergence: while the price has made higher lows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has produced lower lows. This divergence typically indicates a continuation of the upward trend, signaling that selling pressure may be waning.
Investors are closely monitoring key price levels, with $4,672 identified as significant resistance, particularly if Ethereum manages to break past $4,496. A clear breakout above this threshold could lead the asset toward $4,958 and possibly into new price discovery. Conversely, a drop below $4,210 could undermine the current bullish sentiment and raise concerns about market direction.
