Since their launch in November 2025, XRP ETFs have amassed a significant $1.25 billion in assets, effectively locking away 810 million tokens in institutional custody. Notably, these ETFs have managed to maintain a remarkable record, completing 35 consecutive trading days without any outflows—an achievement that even Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs could not replicate.
As of now, XRP is trading near $1.40, but the token has struggled since the beginning of the year, with a declining price trend even as institutional investment continues to flow in. This disparity raises questions about how much additional inflow from ETFs is necessary to effectively elevate the XRP price, particularly towards the $2 mark.
Despite pulling in $88 million in the first quarter of 2026, XRP ETFs have outperformed other altcoin launches, while XRP remains approximately 62% down from its peak in July 2025. A key factor in the stagnant price movement lies with the sellers in the market; since early 2026, around 3.8 billion XRP have been sent to Binance, resulting in formidable resistance around the $1.50 level. This was particularly evident in February when a substantial 472 million XRP—valued at approximately $660 million—hit Binance in response to rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Daily ETF inflows of $7-10 million are not sufficient to contend with such significant sell-offs.
Moreover, XRP’s high correlation with Bitcoin further complicates its price trajectory. Bitcoin has seen a 50% drop from its highs in October 2025, leading XRP to follow suit whenever there is a global sell-off in risk assets. Additionally, institutions investing in XRP ETFs are generally making long-term decisions rather than speculative short-term bets. This behavior results in a stabilizing effect on XRP’s price, preventing sudden crashes, but it doesn’t generate the rapid spikes that ignite rallies.
Currently, the 810 million XRP held in ETF custody represents about 1.3% of the circulating supply of 61.1 billion tokens. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs hold over 6% of the total supply, a concentration that was a driving force behind Bitcoin’s rally in 2024. Therefore, at its current level, XRP’s ETF footprint is not substantial enough to influence the price independently. However, the dynamics shift when considering accumulation at lower prices; right now, at $1.40, a $1 billion inflow could remove approximately 714 million tokens from the market, as opposed to only 500 million if the price were to rise to $2.00.
The total amount of XRP available on centralized exchanges has decreased significantly, plummeting roughly 57% over the past year, which could enhance the potential for price surges if supply keeps dwindling. If ETF assets under management (AUM) were to double to $2 billion, then around 1.4 billion XRP would be held in ETFs, or about 2.3% of the circulating supply, which might still be insufficient for a breakout but would indicate sustained institutional interest.
A level of $3 billion in AUM would usher in more serious considerations, including potential filings for new XRP ETFs by major players like BlackRock. With previous success in the Bitcoin space, a BlackRock entry could substantially elevate XRP’s credibility, and predictions from institutions like Standard Chartered suggest that significant inflows at this level could push XRP towards $2.80, despite holding a long-term price target of $28 for 2030.
Reaching a $5 billion threshold for ETF assets would dramatically alter the landscape. At this level, ETFs would hold approximately 3.5 billion XRP, surpassing what is available across exchanges. This situation would create genuine competition for the remaining tokens, leading to the supply squeeze that many are anticipating.
However, the journey from $1 billion to $5 billion is not straightforward. At the current rate of $7-10 million in daily inflows, it may drag into 2027 unless circumstances change. The involvement of BlackRock remains vital, as their influence has already reshaped institutional strategies towards cryptocurrencies. Additionally, potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could also incentivize institutional investment in crypto.
Ripple’s relationships with financial institutions play a dual role; while over 300 banks utilize RippleNet, only about 40% engage with On-Demand Liquidity, which necessitates the use of XRP. While successful integration without XRP could weaken the token’s utility argument, further adoption for settlement purposes could ignite increased institutional interest, benefiting ETF inflows.
Conversely, any decline in AUM could delay progress toward the $5 billion mark. As ETF assets fell from $1.6 billion in January to approximately $1 billion currently, continued outflows could further complicate investor sentiment. Coupled with ongoing significant XRP sell-offs on exchanges, gaining traction in ETF investments could become a challenging endeavor.
Moving forward in 2026, Bitcoin’s performance will remain crucial to XRP’s price movement. A recovery above $70,000 for Bitcoin is likely more influential than actions taken by Ripple or ETF managers. In the interim, XRP may continue to fluctuate between $1.30 and $2.00, while institutional demand quietly absorbs available supply. If the anticipated pace of inflows continues, locked XRP could reach 1.5 billion tokens by year-end, potentially leading to a noticeable uptick in price as market conditions evolve.
