Stock futures are showing a modest increase as investors gear up for the week’s final trading day, anticipating a crucial inflation report and closely monitoring the ongoing conflict in Iran. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have risen by approximately 0.4%. This uptick follows a challenging session on Thursday, where stocks plummeted as oil prices surged to their highest levels since 2022, triggered by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transport route. Major indexes are poised to report losses for a third consecutive week. In early trading, crude oil futures have decreased by more than 2%, while gold futures are stable around $5,120 per ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has slightly dropped to 4.25%, down from its previous close of 4.27%. Bitcoin has risen to $72,300 after dipping to an overnight low of approximately $70,000.
Crude oil prices have retreated following the U.S. government’s decision to temporarily lift sanctions on Russian oil. The Treasury Department announced exemptions allowing other countries to buy Russian oil currently at sea, a measure expected to remain in place until April 11. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates this action could potentially add hundreds of millions of barrels to global oil supplies. The restrictions on Russian oil exports have been in place since the U.S. and allied nations imposed sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As of now, West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, are down 2.4% at $93.50 per barrel after reaching a high on Thursday not seen since July 2022.
This morning’s economic calendar includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for January, with its release scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. This delayed report is anticipated to show a year-over-year price increase of 2.9%, matching the rate recorded in December. It follows Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index data for February, which met economists’ expectations. The PCE index is of particular importance as it is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge and may influence the central bank’s deliberations on interest rates. The Fed’s policy committee is set to convene next week, with market anticipations suggesting they will maintain current interest rates, largely due to fears that escalating oil prices linked to the Iran conflict could spur inflation and negatively impact economic activity. Additional economic data slated for release includes a first revision on the fourth-quarter 2025 GDP and the latest consumer sentiment survey for March.
In corporate news, shares of Adobe are taking a hit this morning after the software company announced a leadership transition despite reporting a solid earnings quarter. CEO Shantanu Narayen, who has led Adobe for 18 years, is set to step down but will remain until a successor is appointed. Adobe reported first-quarter revenue of $6.40 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.06, surpassing expectations. However, uncertainty in the tech sector, particularly concerning the impact of generative AI on software firms, has contributed to a 23% decline in Adobe’s stock since the beginning of the year, pushing it down about 8% in premarket trading.
Similarly, Ulta Beauty shares are facing downward pressure as the company’s projected outlook falls short of market expectations. While Ulta reported fourth-quarter earnings of $8.01 per share—2 cents less than analyst estimates—the retailer’s revenue of $3.9 billion exceeded predictions. However, its anticipated comparable store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% and earnings guidance of $28.05 to $28.55 per share for the upcoming fiscal year fell below Wall Street consensus. As a result, Ulta shares dropped approximately 8% in early trading.
