Cambridge scientists have conducted the first longitudinal study examining Bitcoin’s resilience against disruptions in network infrastructure, specifically focusing on incidents involving submarine data cables. Their findings indicate that Bitcoin demonstrates a significant degree of resilience to random cable failures, asserting that between 72% and 92% of the world’s submarine cables would need to be severed simultaneously for a substantial disconnection to occur.
The research, which analyzed data spanning 11 years of peer-to-peer network traffic and accounted for 68 verified cable fault events, highlights a notable difference in the impacts of random failures versus targeted attacks on the Bitcoin network. The study utilized a Buldyrev-style cascade model, a tool that assesses complex real-world systems reliant on interdependencies, applicable to various networks including those for computers, power, and transportation.
The report underscores that while Bitcoin’s threshold for random disruptions is robust, the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to organized, targeted attacks. The researchers emphasized that a malicious actor could significantly undermine the network by targeting just five major routing domains—specifically Hetzner, OVH, Comcast, Amazon, and Google Cloud.
One positive takeaway from the study is the implementation of the Tor protocol, which the researchers note has enhanced Bitcoin’s robustness against disruptions. “Bitcoin’s shift to Tor represents a self-organized response to regulatory pressure that simultaneously enhances infrastructure resilience,” they state, pointing out that the protocol not only aids in censorship resistance but also bolsters physical robustness.
As cryptocurrency continues to evolve, the overall conclusions of the study are optimistic for its enthusiasts. However, the researchers caution that the underlying networks supporting cryptocurrencies face increasing vulnerability. Recent months have seen disruptions affecting cables in critical regions, including the Baltic Sea, parts of the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait, raising concerns about the overall stability of the infrastructure that underpins Bitcoin and similar digital currencies.
