Recent analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the months following significant global crises. The study, led by Rony Szuster, the head of research at the platform, examined the performance of Bitcoin over 60-day periods following various economic and geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and escalations in U.S. tariffs.
According to the findings, Bitcoin experienced stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 across all analyzed periods. For instance, after the Trump administration imposed extensive tariffs in April of last year, Bitcoin’s price surged by 24% over the following two months. In comparison, gold only rose by 8%, while the S&P 500 saw a mere 4% increase.
A similar trend was noticed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. In that timeframe, Bitcoin climbed by 21%, outpacing both gold and the S&P 500.
However, Szuster emphasized the importance of not rushing to judgment about Bitcoin’s performance immediately after a crisis. He likened this to watching just the first few moments of a film and assuming to know the entire plot. In the wake of a crisis, it is common for investors to sell off positions to minimize risk or to generate cash, which can lead even traditionally safe assets to decline temporarily. Despite these initial sell-offs, Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated resilience and a rebound in value, according to the study.
The research indicates that this pattern is re-emerging amidst the current U.S.-Iran conflict. In this context, Bitcoin stands out as the only asset among the three in positive territory. Since the onset of the conflict, Bitcoin has increased by over 2.2%, climbing from approximately $65,800 to around $67,300. In striking contrast, gold has experienced a downturn of roughly 11%, while the S&P 500 index has witnessed a loss of 4.4%, representing its steepest monthly decline since 2022.
Despite its inherent volatility, analysts claim that Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset over the last decade, further solidifying its role as a potentially valuable investment during turbulent times.
