Bitcoin experienced a decline amidst increased market volatility, largely influenced by geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. The largest cryptocurrency observed a drop of up to 2.5% during New York trading, reversing the gains it had made just a day prior when it briefly surpassed $70,000 for the first time since March. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, faced an even steeper decline, falling more than 3%.
Global stock markets also pulled back as investors steeled themselves for a Tuesday deadline set by President Donald Trump. In a recent threat, Trump warned of potential bombings targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran unless the vital Strait of Hormuz was reopened. This deadline marks a critical juncture in an ongoing conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and caused significant disruptions in the global oil market.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at the investing and trading platform IG, remarked that cryptocurrencies appear to be in a state of stagnation, having moved sideways over the past month. While stock markets seem unfazed for the time being, ignoring the potential energy crisis, oil prices have been driven up due to the ongoing straits closure. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are seemingly left to fluctuate without much direction.
The reluctance of investors has been compounded by escalating risks associated with the conflict in Iran, particularly following reports of Iran’s rejection of a ceasefire proposal. Trump emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is integral to any peace deal in the ongoing war. Since the conflict ignited, oil prices have surged significantly, with Brent crude increasing by about 50% since the conflict began at the end of February, while gold has seen a drop of more than 10%.
Despite the tumultuous environment, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, indicating a decrease in institutional selling pressure. Recent data revealed substantial net inflows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), totaling $471.3 million on Monday, following a net inflow of $22.3 million the previous week. This comes as a notable recovery from almost $300 million in outflows seen the week prior. March itself recorded about $1.3 billion in net inflows into these ETFs, signaling a stabilization following four consecutive months of net outflows that started in November 2025.
Analyzing the broader picture, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, noted that Bitcoin’s performance has been comparatively strong, showing stability above early March levels, unlike stock indices and gold. However, sentiment around Bitcoin remains bearish in the short to medium term, according to Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. She pointed out that the market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, where bullish traders struggle to sustain upward movements and bearish sentiment does not push prices downward decisively.
Since the onset of the Iran conflict in late February, Bitcoin has vacillated between approximately $60,000 and $75,000, reaching a high near $76,000 before retreating. Over the last two weeks, it traded below the $70,000 mark. Traders are now focusing on potential developments such as a resolution to the war and upcoming cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. as catalysts that could drive digital assets higher.
Lucas emphasized that a favorable scenario for Bitcoin relies on two key factors: a confirmed and sustained ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that would bring oil prices below $100, coupled with the anticipated passage of the U.S. Clarity Act later this month, which is expected to be closely watched by institutional market participants looking for regulatory clarity.
