Recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) may be inching toward a bull market phase, buoyed by an increasing trend of supply shifting into long-term, retail-investor-associated wallets. By the first quarter of 2026, the total BTC held in these wallets has surged beyond 4 million BTC, marking a significant trend in accumulation.
This movement aligns with a notable uptick in the Bitcoin network activity index, which has reached levels not observed since April 2025, signaling a resurgence in network engagement. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that the balances in accumulating address cohorts continued to rise into the first quarter of 2026, with total BTC held by these addresses climbing to approximately 4.37 million BTC as of April 7. This is a remarkable increase from about 2 million BTC at the beginning of 2024, highlighting a robust pattern of supply absorption.
Retail-investor-linked accumulation addresses alone have contributed around 857,000 BTC to this total, while wallets characterized by a consistent accumulation pattern—those that regularly add BTC with minimal outflows—have grown their holdings to 1.29 million BTC. Notably, this growth occurred despite Bitcoin’s price remaining capped below $70,000 throughout the first quarter of 2026.
In contrast, inflows from centralized exchanges and active addresses have significantly slowed down. During the expansive phases of 2023 to 2024, inflows routinely exceeded 1.2 to 1.5 million BTC. In recent times, however, the activity has averaged only between 300,000 and 350,000 BTC. This reduction indicates a shift in the distribution of coins, with more BTC being directed into long-term wallets and fewer available for circulation on exchanges. Such a trend points to a tightening of the liquid supply and a decrease in short-term trading activity.
The Bitcoin network activity index, a composite metric that incorporates various usage signals such as transaction counts and network throughput, has seen an increase to 3,600, up from 3,320 on March 22. This rise marks the index crossing above its 365-day moving average for the first time since December 2024, categorizing the current phase as a bull period for the first time since April 2025.
Interestingly, the momentum of Bitcoin’s active addresses has dropped to -0.25, the lowest level since April 2018. This metric tracks changes in active addresses, with negative values indicating a decrease in user participation. This decline has been evident since July 2025, echoing similar dips in 2024 that preceded a significant price drop of 35%.
According to crypto analyst Gaah, the declining activity serves as an indicator of reduced participation from short-term investors or “tourists.” The current network dynamics are increasingly dominated by long-term holders focused on accumulation. Historically, low readings in network activity have coincided with favorable accumulation phases, correlating with diminished sell pressure as more coins transition into long-term wallets.
