Bitcoin experienced a minor setback on Friday, pulling back to $71,843 after facing significant selling pressure during its third attempt to breach the $73,000 mark on Thursday. This level has consistently proven to be a barrier, rejecting Bitcoin’s price on every rally since the onset of the Iran conflict back in late February.
Despite this retreat, Bitcoin has managed to post an impressive weekly gain of 7.9%, marking its strongest performance during the ongoing war. The cryptocurrency remains above its 50-day moving average, which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict began. Among other prominent cryptocurrencies, Ether held steady at $2,189, recording a 6.6% weekly increase. Solana’s SOL surged by 5.1% to reach $83.09, while XRP gained 2.8%, up to $1.34, and Dogecoin climbed 2.4% to $0.092. Notably, for the first time in over a month, all top 10 cryptocurrencies are showing positive movement on the weekly chart.
The $73,000 level seems to be acting as a formidable wall, having capped Bitcoin three times since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday. Each attempt to break through this threshold has resulted in a quick rally that fizzled out within hours, echoing a familiar pattern from the pre-ceasefire range, just shifted higher. Currently, Bitcoin appears to be oscillating between the $70,000 and $73,000 ranges.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, emphasized the necessity for Bitcoin to surpass the $75,000 mark before declaring an active bullish phase for the market. He noted that while Bitcoin’s position above the 50-day moving average is encouraging, the repeated rejections at $73,000 remain a critical barrier that must be overcome.
In a more optimistic tone, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, set even higher targets, asserting that Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $74,000, followed by a break above $80,000, for the uptrend to resume. According to Novogratz, success in breaking through these levels could trigger renewed optimism and restore the upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
However, the ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s rally is already appearing tenuous, with Iran accusing the U.S. of violating several clauses of the agreement. The Strait of Hormuz is only partially reopened due to “technical limitations.” In the commodities market, oil prices rebounded from a significant 15% decline, trading back above $97.
Ether’s performance is also characterized by a range-bound setup, pulling back 4% from a peak earlier in the week. Kuptsikevich described this pullback as market noise within a consolidation phase between $2,000 and $2,400. He noted that a breakout beyond this calm zone would signal the potential for a directional move.
In the altcoin space, there were notable divergences, as Algorand dropped 11.4%, and both Aptos and Polkadot fell by 6.1%. This trend often indicates that traders are rotating their investments rather than introducing new capital.
Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index has crept out of the single digits for the first time in over a month, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. If the ceasefire holds through the weekend and conditions in the Strait improve further, Bitcoin may face a fourth test of the $73,000 level with renewed momentum. On the other hand, if tensions escalate or political rhetoric shifts, a pullback toward the $68,000 to $70,000 range may become more likely.
