Bitcoin has surged past the $73,000 mark, extending a remarkable bullish run into the Wall Street open on Friday. Traders are now setting their sights on a potential rally towards $80,000 by the end of April, fueled by several indicators suggesting a shift in market control toward bullish sentiment.
The recent momentum was propelled by Bitcoin breaking out of a bearish chart pattern that had been forming. On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency invalidated a bear pennant on the daily chart, marking a critical turnaround. The BTCUSD pair surged through the upper trend line of the pennant at $70,000, climbing as much as 7% to reach a six-week high of $73,300 on Friday. This breakout was accompanied by a notable increase in trading volume, hinting at a more robust conviction among traders regarding the rally.
Key support lines have also been reclaimed, including the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which currently sits at $68,350, along with the 20-day EMA at $69,520, and the 50-day EMA at $70,580. This resurgence of support raises the likelihood of a symmetrical-triangle bullish reversal pattern. Such a triangle occurs when prices create lower highs and higher lows, progressively tightening into a confined range. Should Bitcoin break above the upper trend line of this pattern, the potential measured move could target around $87,000, representing a roughly 20% increase from its current levels.
Contributing to the bullish outlook, a divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) has indicated that upward momentum has been building over the past two months, further bolstering expectations of continued upside momentum. However, Bitcoin still faces potential resistance at the 100-day EMA, located near $75,400. A rejection at this level could weaken the current breakout and heighten the chances of a price pullback.
Despite the optimism, on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin’s upside could be capped at $80,000. According to insights from TradingView, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a $60,000 to $70,000 range for over six weeks, struggling to establish a consistent foothold above $72,000. Glassnode’s risk indicators point to significant resistance around the true market mean at $78,000 and the short-term holder cost basis around $80,000. Any upward rally into this zone is expected to encounter substantial selling pressure from recent buyers looking to exit near their breakeven points.
Further analysis reveals that Bitcoin has entered a relatively open price zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where it could experience more flexible movement in the short term, assuming the current momentum persists. However, upside potential may be limited within the $82,000 to $85,000 range, where significant buying activity was noted, with investors acquiring over 1.3 million BTC.
Amid these developments, Polymarket—a speculative trading platform—shows a noticeable bullish shift in sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s price. Traders now assign a 26% probability that BTCUSD will hit $80,000 in April, a 5% increase compared to just 24 hours prior. A target of $75,000 appears even more likely, with 76% confidence among traders, while the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $65,000 in April has diminished, reflecting a tempered outlook on downside risks.
