After six weeks of escalating conflict, the bitcoin market has effectively divided into two distinct groups: institutional buyers who continue their accumulation of the cryptocurrency, and a broader base of holders who are retreating. Despite the tumultuous backdrop defined by fluctuating war headlines and severe sentiment downturns, bitcoin has maintained a trading range between $65,000 and $73,000. However, beneath this surface stability, significant shifts are occurring that could determine the market’s future direction.
On one side, institutional purchasers are dominating the bitcoin landscape. Three primary entities account for the majority of sustained buying activity. Notably, Strategy recently disclosed the acquisition of 4,871 BTC, amounting to $329.9 million at an average price of $67,718 per coin. This brings its total holdings to 766,970 BTC, purchased at a blended cost of $75,644—currently showing an 8% loss based on prevailing prices. Strategy has consistently accumulated around 44,000 BTC per month since March, enabled by considerable inflows into its STRC preferred equity product. However, the potential for slowed inflows could impact its buying power moving forward.
In addition, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs demonstrated a robust accumulation phase, absorbing around 50,000 BTC in March, marking the highest monthly intake since 2025. Yet, broader ETF trends indicate a cautionary note, with CoinShares reporting merely $22 million in U.S. spot ETF inflows last week. A significant portion of global inflows can be attributed to Swiss-listed products, which highlights the concentrated nature of current institutional demand.
Conversely, discretionary sellers have become increasingly visible in the market. Whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have shifted from being main buyers to predominant sellers, with a dramatic decline of 188,000 BTC in their holdings over the past year. Mid-tier holders, while still nominally accumulating, have seen their pace plummet by over 60%. Bitcoin miners are also under pressure, with companies like Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings selling substantial portions of their treasury. Additionally, Bhutan, which had been positioning itself as a bitcoin holder, has dramatically reduced its holdings by 70% since 2024.
The sentiment among retail investors contrasts sharply with that of institutional buyers. The Fear and Greed Index has languished in extreme fear territory for over a month, reflecting deep unease, as evidenced by a predominance of bearish social media sentiment during this period. Nonetheless, institutional buyers have kept market prices relatively stable by absorbing the sell-offs from those eager to exit.
The ceasefire announcement has injected a fresh wave of optimism, leading to a notable rally as bitcoin surged past $72,000. This uptick was accompanied by significant liquidations of short positions and an increase in open interest in perpetual contracts for both bitcoin and ether. The Coinbase Premium turning positive for the first time since October suggests renewed interest from U.S. buyers.
However, the fundamental dynamics of the market remain largely unchanged by the ceasefire. The question now is whether the temporary truce can evolve into a sustainable trend reversal, and whether the institutional flows that strengthen market stability can break through the persistent resistance posed by the $73,000 barrier.
In summary, the bitcoin market is witnessing a pronounced narrowing in its buyer base. With the majority of sustained buying activity concentrated in the hands of a few entities—Strategy, select ETFs, and a minor contribution from new channels like Morgan Stanley—the outlook remains uncertain for those outside this narrow cohort. As individuals and entities reassess their positions, the path forward for bitcoin will depend on how effectively these institutional buyers can continue to absorb selling pressure while driving prices upward.
