Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to stabilize following a tumultuous start to the week, having dipped briefly to the crucial $70,000 support level on Sunday. As of Monday, BTC is showing signs of recovery, trading above $72,000. However, its next movements may hinge less on internal cryptocurrency trends and more on the deteriorating geopolitical landscape, particularly the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran.
In a recent analysis, market analyst Sam Daodu suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory is closely linked to the unfolding conflict. Rather than predicting a single outcome, Daodu presents three distinct scenarios—each carrying different implications for oil prices, investor sentiment, and, ultimately, BTC price action.
In his optimistic scenario, Daodu posits that a comprehensive peace agreement could transform both geopolitical and commodity outlooks. If such a deal materializes, he anticipates oil prices could decrease back to pre-war levels, falling into the $65 to $70 per barrel range. Under these conditions, Bitcoin could surge toward the $100,000 mark by the end of the year, representing a 39% increase from its current trading levels.
Daodu’s baseline scenario is more guarded, focused on potential developments around April 15. He speculates that if the talks scheduled for that period yield a new agreement, oil prices might dip below $95, akin to the reactions following the announcement of the first ceasefire last week. Daodu highlights a significant market positioning factor, noting the existence of approximately $6 billion in short positions between $72,200 and $73,500. Should oil prices decline swiftly and overall market sentiment improve, these short positions could be unwound, potentially triggering a short squeeze and propelling Bitcoin’s price up to between $75,000 and $80,000.
Conversely, the bearish scenario hinges on the failure of the ceasefire, whether through a complete breakdown or an expiration without a viable resolution. Daodu describes the ongoing ceasefire as “hanging by a thread,” given the recent collapse of negotiations and the announcement of a blockade. In this case, should oil prices surge past the $110 to $120 mark, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its support at $70,000. From this level, it could face an accelerated downward trajectory, potentially plummeting to $65,000. If the geopolitical crises persist, Daodu warns that Bitcoin could eventually slide further to between $55,000 and $60,000.
Despite laying out these three potential paths, Daodu concludes that the most likely outcome presently aligns with the base case. He believes Bitcoin will remain range-bound until substantive developments arise from future negotiations.
