Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a downturn on Thursday after reaching near three-month highs, as traders turned their focus to the upcoming weekly close. After a recent ascent to $79,500, which marked the highest price since January, BTC retreated to $77,200 prior to the opening of Wall Street. The critical $80,000 level remains just out of reach.
Traders are particularly interested in the current weekly candle close as Bitcoin tests its bull market support band, a key indicator that was lost as support following its last all-time highs. Comments from trader Jelle highlighted that Bitcoin’s ability to exceed prior highs and short stops without substantial follow-through typically indicates that liquidity may be building for a larger position. “The question is, when will they step on the gas?” he mused.
Data reflections indicate that the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) has proven difficult to convert into support. The last time Bitcoin traded above this trend line was in October 2025. The resurgence of Bitcoin’s bull market support band—comprised of the 21-week EMA and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA)—has reignited hopes. Trader Daan Crypto Trades mentioned the significance of the weekend’s weekly close, noting the importance of breaking back above this critical support.
In the broader macro environment, volatility was minimal, with few developments related to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Market participants are bracing for significant US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement scheduled for the following week. Recently, there has been a marked decrease in expectations of Fed policy easing, with projections delaying any chances until late 2027, largely due to heightened geopolitical tensions potentially fueling inflationary pressures.
The likelihood of any rate changes at next week’s meeting is considered almost nonexistent, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. QCP Capital emphasized in their latest analysis that key indicators such as oil prices and Fed policy will serve as vital signals for the crypto market. They stated, “Until then, the broader message remains the same: risk has stepped back from the brink, but the underlying macro and geopolitical overhang has not been cleared.” The current trading landscape continues to reflect a cautious optimism, navigating through macroeconomic uncertainties as traders await further developments.
