Recent analysis of Bitcoin’s on-chain and derivatives data indicates a potentially favorable market environment, with insights from VanEck shedding light on several critical factors. The firm reported a notable decline in funding rates and a decrease in hash rate, coinciding with a reduction in volatility and cautious investor sentiment.
According to VanEck’s latest report, the realized volatility of Bitcoin has diminished from approximately 56% to 41%, a decline attributed to easing tensions between the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, the 7-day average funding rate has plummeted to around -1.8%, marking its lowest point since 2023 and placing it in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020. The significance of negative funding rates is underscored by historical data that shows Bitcoin’s average 30-day return during such periods stands at 11.5%, in contrast to an overall average of 4.5%. Furthermore, there exists a 77% success rate for positive performance when negative funding rates are present.
Historical trends reveal that when annualized funding drops below -5%, the average 30-day return spikes to 19.4%, with 180-day returns soaring to 70%. This pattern has often acted as a contrarian buy signal, as highlighted by VanEck. Surprisingly, 19 out of the top 50 180-day returns since 2020 started on days characterized by negative funding, even though these instances only make up about 13.6% of the sample size.
From a mining perspective, the data shows a significant downturn in the Bitcoin hash rate. The 30-day moving average hash rate has now entered the 16th percentile for 30-day spans and the 9th percentile for 90-day windows. Difficulty levels have similarly lowered, reaching the 5th and 6th percentiles for those respective periods. The report highlights three episodes of sustained hash rate decline since December 2025, marking the most significant clustering since China’s mining ban in 2021. The most recent drawdown, noted at approximately 6.7%, concluded on April 15, 2026. Historical analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s value has increased 90 days following seven previous drawdowns in six cases, demonstrating a median rise of 37.7%, while the 180-day median gain reached 63.1%.
In terms of derivatives and on-chain activities, there’s evidence of a cautious market sentiment rather than outright capitulation. Put premiums relative to spot volume are now over six times higher compared to April 2024 levels, indicating heightened protective trading activity. Additionally, active supply has decreased to 28.4% over the last 180 days, suggesting increased holder inactivity. Notably, long-tenured cohorts—specifically those holding for 7-10 years and over 10 years—increased their spent volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles of the previous four years. However, VanEck cautions that such movements do not necessarily imply selling.
In conclusion, the firm posits that the combination of negative funding rates and hash rate strain creates a substantially bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Analysts from VanEck stated, “Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on Bitcoin.”
