Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery throughout April, managing to briefly surpass the $79,000 mark after a significant downturn in March. Despite this upward movement, skepticism remains among analysts, with some suggesting that the resurgence could merely represent a mid-bear-market rally preceding a deeper decline.
One prominent voice in this debate is crypto analyst Killa, who previously forecasted a peak for Bitcoin in July 2025. Now, Killa has shifted focus to predicting how much further Bitcoin’s price may plummet before reaching a true bottom. Drawing on a previous model that accurately anticipated a peak of $121,362 back in June 2025—only a 3.9% deviation from the eventual all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025—Killa’s new analysis looks at the downside risks for the cryptocurrency.
Killa bases this prediction on the principle that each successive Bitcoin market cycle results in a smaller high-to-bottom multiple as the asset matures. Historical data from five cycles indicates a downward trend in these multiples—down from 15.50x in the first cycle to 7.64x, then 6.26x, and finally 4.47x in the fourth cycle, where Bitcoin peaked at $69,800 and subsequently bottomed at $15,600. By applying this declining rate of reduction to the current cycle, Killa estimates that the high-to-bottom multiple may now be around 3.25x. This leads to a projected base bottom target of $38,800, derived from dividing the cycle peak of $126,100.
To account for a potential 5% variance reflective of his initial price forecasts, Killa has proposed two bullish scenarios, suggesting targets of $40,740 and $42,680. Even in the most optimistic case, Bitcoin would still remain significantly below the $60,000 mark, which some have identified as a more hopeful correction bottom.
As of the latest updates, Bitcoin’s trading price stands at $78,015. Should it drop to $42,680, it would represent a decline of approximately 45%. Furthermore, a descent to Killa’s $38,800 target would reflect a nearly 50% correction from current levels.
Support for Killa’s projections can be found in the analysis of another analyst, CryptoBullet. Taking a different approach, CryptoBullet examined Bitcoin’s price movements through a symmetrical lens. His weekly Bitcoin chart presents the current cycle as a five-wave Elliott Wave advance that commenced in late 2022, with the fifth wave culminating around the $126,000 high in October 2025. Following this, he identifies a corrective structure labeled W-X-Y, indicating an impending final leg down that could see Bitcoin fall below $50,000, potentially landing between $45,000 and $50,000.
According to CryptoBullet, the substantial upward trajectory over the past three years—from the November 2022 bottom to the projected peak in 2025—reflects that a correction of this magnitude necessitates a bearish phase lasting no less than a year. He foresees the current downward trend extending into the latter half of 2026 before a definitive bottom is established.
This analysis continues to underscore the volatility and unpredictability prevailing within the cryptocurrency market, raising questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s recent price movements.
