Bitcoin’s performance in May is attracting renewed interest following two consecutive months of positive returns. Market analyst Trader_XO has highlighted seasonal data that suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of achieving a rare three-month winning streak. However, analysts question whether historical trends hold weight amidst current geopolitical tensions that could complicate market signals.
According to Coinglass data shared by Trader_XO, Bitcoin’s monthly performance has shown significant fluctuations this year. 2026 began with a rough start, as BTC experienced a drop of 10.17% in January and an additional 14.94% in February. Following these declines, Bitcoin rebounded with a 1.81% gain in March and an impressive 11.87% increase in April. May has commenced with a positive return of 3.18%, making it look promising thus far.
In an analysis of Bitcoin’s seasonal tendencies, Trader_XO noted that historically, May has been positive approximately 60% of the time over the past 13 years, with an average return of around 8% and a median return of approximately 3%. Notably, the only instance in which Bitcoin posted consecutive positive monthly returns for March, April, and May occurred in 2019, raising questions about the chances of repeating this success in 2026.
The data indicates that May is one of Bitcoin’s stronger months, with an average return of 7.82%, trailing only October, November, and April. However, the month has also seen significant volatility, having delivered substantial gains in years like 2017 and 2019, while suffering steep losses in 2021 and 2022. This inconsistency suggests that while May may show a general upward trend, it cannot be relied upon as a consistent period for profit, especially given the potential for significant downturns.
In discussions surrounding the data, StrongHedge emphasized the importance of context, arguing that the situation in 2019—when the market began a new uptrend—differs significantly from the current landscape. Trader_XO acknowledged this perspective, further complicating the forecast for May.
As 2026 progresses, the market is challenged to determine whether it can replicate the three-month winning streak seen back then. Although the recovery from February’s slump has reinvigorated positive momentum, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks loom large.
This uncertainty was palpably evident during Monday’s trading session. Bitcoin surged past $80,000 for the first time since late January, reaching an intraday high of approximately $80,529. This spike coincided with an announcement from Donald Trump regarding “Project Freedom,” aimed at bolstering US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated the deployment of Navy guided-missile destroyers to protect commercial vessels in the region.
However, this upward motion proved short-lived. Subsequent news from Iran’s Fars news agency stated that missiles had struck a US warship near Jask Island, which allegedly ignored Iranian warnings. US officials refuted the claim that any Navy vessel had been hit, leading to a subsequent drop in Bitcoin’s value as it lost the $80,000 breakout and fell back toward the high-$78,000 range. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $78,755.
Given the volatility and external influences at play, market participants remain wary as they assess the potential of Bitcoin for continued gains throughout the month of May.
