Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has experienced a stark decline, falling over 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) in the past year. Market analysts are cautioning that the downward trend may continue, with predictions suggesting a potential plunge of another 40%.
Current observations indicate that ETH is mirroring a bearish trend setup reminiscent of 2025. The Ether-Bitcoin trading pair has struggled to break above a multi-year descending trend line, a resistance level that has thwarted breakout attempts since 2022. The most recent attempt to break this barrier occurred in August 2025, but ETH faced rejection near key resistance points, including the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average.
Following this rejection, ETH/BTC slipped below its 20-month exponential moving average, indicating a dominance of sellers in the market. Analysts suggest that if the current bearish trend continues, the pair could drop to a major downside target around 0.0176 BTC, representing a decrease of approximately 40% from current valuations.
Examination of exchange reserves further illustrates the divergence between Ethereum and Bitcoin. As of May, Ether reserves on Binance—one of the largest crypto exchanges—rose significantly, reaching 3.62 million ETH, which constitutes roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges. In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on the same exchange have been declining.
The increase in Ether reserves on exchanges tends to indicate a higher availability for sale, raising concerns about the price if demand isn’t robust enough to match the increased supply. Conversely, declining Bitcoin reserves typically signal that coins are being moved into long-term storage, hinting at tighter supply conditions.
This emerging trend underscores a broader shift in Ethereum’s fundamentals. In recent years, Ether’s narrative as “ultrasound money” has lost some of its appeal, further contributing to its underperformance compared to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has demonstrated strength, supported by corporate accumulation and increasing integration into institutional investment portfolios.
As the crypto market navigates these turbulent conditions, the disparity between Ether and Bitcoin continues to draw attention, suggesting that Ethereum will need to address these challenges to regain traction.
