XRP experienced a significant rally yesterday, climbing to $1.50 and marking an increase of over 7% within a week. This surge was driven by a spike in trading volume, helping the cryptocurrency break above a critical resistance level of $1.45, which had been a barrier since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in late February. Currently, XRP is trading around $1.46, just above the $1.45 threshold.
In related news, the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026, as indicated by Polymarket, saw a rise to nearly 80% last week, even briefly reaching 90% during the weekend. However, these odds have now receded to 62% following pushback from major banking trade groups, who rejected a stablecoin compromise proposed in the bill. With a crucial Senate Banking Committee markup happening in just three days, the future trajectory of XRP could hinge on the events set to unfold on Thursday.
The fluctuation in the odds for the CLARITY Act can be traced back a few weeks. Initial pricing at Polymarket was at 46%, but Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott scheduled a markup for May 14, causing the expectations to surge to 79%. This optimism was short-lived, as the odds peaked at 90% only to fall back to around 75% over the weekend. Following rejection from five major banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, the odds dropped by 17 points in less than two days. The banking groups expressed concerns that the wording of the compromise would still allow crypto platforms to offer reward programs similar to deposit interest, warning that they might adversely impact consumer and business loans.
In response, Senators Thom Tillis and Cynthia Lummis publicly defended the stablecoin compromise. Tillis stated on social media that while he acknowledges differing opinions within the banking sector, he remains committed to the bill. Despite this bipartisan support, the rejection from banking groups has created uncertainty in the market, contributing to the volatility in XRP prices.
XRP’s recent upward movement has been tempered, stalling at $1.50, as bears have swiftly intervened. Thursday’s Senate Banking Committee meeting is now seen as pivotal—if the markup passes, it could support XRP’s breakout, but if it fails, XRP might plunge back to the trading range it has occupied for most of the year.
The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to convene at 10:30 AM EST on Thursday. With 24 senators serving on the panel, a simple majority of 13 votes is necessary to send the bill to the full Senate. Tim Scott is trying to secure unanimous support from all 13 Republicans. However, Senator John Kennedy has expressed hesitance, which does not relate to cryptocurrency but instead stems from frustrations concerning another legislative matter. If Kennedy does not fall in line by Thursday, Scott will need to attract at least one Democratic vote to reach the necessary threshold.
The atmosphere during the opening statements and the first contested vote will be critical indicators of the markup’s prospects. Any sign of dissent among Republicans could spell trouble for the bill. Although passing the committee is essential, it does not guarantee the bill will become law, as it must still clear the full Senate and go through reconciliation with the House before reaching the President’s desk.
XRP’s price trajectory remains closely tied to the outcome of the Thursday vote. If the markup succeeds, XRP could maintain its momentum, especially given a substantial resistance level above the $1.50 mark, where significant sell orders are already placed. If the bill garners enough support to push through, analysts anticipate a potential rise to the $1.65 to $1.70 range, and possibly even higher if it breaches the 200-day moving average at $1.80.
Conversely, a failure on Thursday to advance the markup could see XRP revert to the $1.30-$1.44 trading range, undermining its recent gains and stalling growth until further developments arise.
In this volatile environment, XRP’s near-term prospects hinge not only on the committee vote but also on broader market influences, including Bitcoin’s performance. A strengthening Bitcoin could favor altcoins, including XRP, and spur significant price movements. Ultimately, while optimism exists, the conditional nature of Thursday’s vote leaves XRP’s future trajectory uncertain.
