Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are showing promising signs, indicating a potential bullish trend not seen since early February, according to a recent analysis by Bitfinex. However, despite these encouraging signals, data reveals that underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning could pose significant challenges on the path to new all-time highs.
Long-term holders have been particularly active, with their holdings increasing by an impressive 300% since the end of 2025, now totaling nearly 4 million bitcoins. Since a surge past the $82,000 mark on May 11, these holders have begun to realize profits, averaging around $180 million per day. This selling pressure, while moderate compared to previous cycles, raises concerns. Analysts point out that daily realized losses remain notably high, averaging $479 million, significantly more than the typical fluctuations seen in quieter market periods, where losses hover around $200 million. Until these realized losses decrease to the latter range, analysts suggest that a robust on-chain recovery is yet to be confirmed.
Adding to the cautious outlook is the emergence of a “gamma trap” in the derivatives market. According to data from Glassnode, an estimated $2 billion in short gamma options positions is concentrated near the $82,000 strike price. This positioning complicates market dynamics, as market makers need to hedge their bets, which can initially amplify volatility. However, over time, this setup might also serve as a resistance level once the momentary price momentum wanes.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, elaborated on this phenomenon, explaining that while dealer hedging could push prices towards $82,000, it could just as easily suppress further momentum once any initial price squeeze dissipates. He cautions that while on-chain data may indicate a recovery, participation from institutional investors has been notably lackluster. In the past week, major corporate buyers significantly reduced their activity, with a staggering 80% drop in purchase volume compared to the previous month.
Moreover, the divergence between price action and institutional flows serves as a significant red flag. On May 13, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a dramatic $635 million outflow, representing the largest single-day exit since January, further amplifying concerns about the sustainability of the current price level.
Market analyst Mati Greenspan pointed out that the current price range between $79,000 and $85,000 resembles more of a transitional phase rather than a definitive ceiling. He underscored that the broader economic landscape continues to cast a shadow over Bitcoin’s trajectory, particularly following the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair amid a troubling backdrop of rising inflation, currently at 3.8%. Analysts are now anticipating that the market is bracing for a “higher for longer” interest rate scenario.
In the face of these challenges, Fernandes expressed skepticism about Bitcoin’s ability to reach a new all-time high this year without some radical geopolitical changes. He emphasized that until the market can manage the ongoing daily realized losses and re-establish institutional confidence, further upward momentum towards the $85,000 level may be limited. Analysts at Bitfinex project a possible swift jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, but caution that this might be followed by a period of stabilization as the market grapples with these overarching economic and behavioral factors.
