Crypto markets displayed a slight uptick on Monday, reflecting shifting sentiments following the arrival of Iranian negotiators in Doha for impending talks. Bitcoin saw an increase of 1.6% over the previous 24 hours, reaching a value of $77,500. Ether followed suit with a 1.4% rise, and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index gained 1.56%.
The change in crypto prices appears to be partly influenced by rising optimism regarding a potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Markets on Polymarket have notably increased their forecast for a permanent deal this month, lifting probabilities to 37% from about 14% just days prior. Expectations have continued to swell, suggesting a 46% chance for an agreement by early June and a staggering 72% by the end of July, amid approximately $178 million in trading volume.
This optimism may have been further fueled by a post from former President Trump on Truth Social, which indicated that a framework agreement was “subject to finalization.” Key Iranian officials, including chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, landed in Doha to engage in discussions. A diplomat familiar with negotiations revealed that the agenda would focus on critical issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s highly enriched uranium program. According to reports, the Iranian foreign ministry has characterized the proposed deal as a memorandum of understanding for a preliminary phase, paving the way for broader discussions over the next 30 to 60 days. Mediation efforts are being led by Pakistan and Qatar.
Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have escalated since a significant altercation involving the U.S. and Israel took place on February 28, resulting in a blockade that has since partially eased but remains a concern for international shipping. In parallel with these developments, crude oil prices declined by 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel, while gold prices rose 1.35%, now standing at $4,570 per ounce. The U.S. dollar witnessed a decline, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping approximately 0.3%.
Despite the hopeful developments, Trump’s comments maintain a conditional stance, stating, “It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before,” hinting at potential volatility ahead.
