The outlook for Bitcoin has become increasingly cautious as prediction markets indicate a higher likelihood of the cryptocurrency dipping below the $70,000 threshold by the end of May. Recent data shows that traders are wary, with the odds of a price drop standing at 26% on Polymarket and 27% on Myriad, despite a notable slide in prices.
Currently trading around $72,739, Bitcoin’s value has slumped by 3% in the last 24 hours, reaching a six-week low of $72,669. The downturn is attributed to a combination of significant exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a spike in crypto liquidations, which have approached a staggering $924 million in the past day alone. A majority of these liquidations, totaling approximately $851 million, are from leveraged long positions betting on price increases.
Arctic Digital analysts have pointed to substantial ETF outflows as a critical factor contributing to Bitcoin’s decline, noting the recent loss of over $1 billion from Bitcoin ETFs in just two days. This includes a single-day outflow of $733 million on Wednesday and a cumulative total of more than $2.6 billion evacuated during Bitcoin’s current eight-day losing streak.
While traders express growing bearish sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, predictions for more severe declines appear restrained. The odds of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 before the end of May remain relatively low at 3%. However, over longer timeframes, market predictions indicate a more pessimistic outlook, with a 54% chance of Bitcoin dropping beneath $55,000 and a 42% probability of trading under $50,000 by 2026.
Analysts note that these further declines, should they materialize, could mark critical benchmarks for the cryptocurrency. Earlier this year, CryptoQuant identified $55,000 as the pivotal “ultimate bear market bottom,” while Standard Chartered suggested that Bitcoin could potentially plummet as low as $50,000 before a rebound towards $100,000.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at over 42% less than its all-time high of $126,080, stirring concerns among investors and market watchers alike about its near-term resilience in the face of ongoing volatility.
