Users in prediction markets are increasingly speculating on the potential for Bitcoin to dip below the $70,000 threshold before the month concludes, as the leading cryptocurrency continues its downward trajectory. In the last 24 hours, Bitcoin has seen a 3% decline, trading at approximately $72,739, which positions it just 3.9% above the critical $70,000 mark. Notably, overnight fluctuations sent the price to a six-week low of $72,669, according to CoinGecko.
This ongoing slide has significantly impacted predicted price movements on Myriad, a prediction market platform associated with Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan. The odds of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 have surged over 240% in the past day, now standing at 27%. A similar trend can be observed on Polymarket, where traders estimate a 26% chance of Bitcoin dropping below the same figure before the end of May.
Several factors have contributed to this bearish outlook, including a wave of crypto liquidations, which reached nearly $924 million in the last 24 hours, with $851 million attributed to long positions—investments hoping for price increases. An analyst from Arctic Digital noted that significant outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also added pressure to the market, highlighting recent losses exceeding $1 billion over just two days. Specifically, $733 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday alone, leading to a broader exodus of over $2.6 billion during the current eight-day downturn.
Despite this grim immediate forecast, the odds of Bitcoin experiencing a more drastic fall appear muted in the short term. For instance, Myriad shows only a 3% likelihood of Bitcoin dropping below $65,000 by the end of May. However, if the timeframe is extended, a more pessimistic view emerges. On Polymarket, the odds rise to 54% for Bitcoin sinking below $55,000 and 42% for it trading below $50,000 by 2026. Earlier in the year, crypto analysis firm CryptoQuant identified $55,000 as the “ultimate bear market bottom,” and analysts at Standard Chartered have suggested that Bitcoin could plummet to $50,000 before rebounding to the much-anticipated $100,000 mark.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading more than 42% lower than its all-time high of $126,080, reflecting a challenging landscape for investors as they navigate the evolving dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.
