U.S. Tiger Research has established an ambitious long-term valuation range for Bitcoin, estimating it could reach between $227,000 and $378,000 per coin. This projection hinges on Bitcoin potentially capturing 15% to 25% of gold’s total market value as its adoption widens.
In a detailed report, analyst Bo Pei posits that for this valuation to materialize, Bitcoin must achieve a significant presence as a minority asset in institutional portfolios, private wealth management, and among everyday households. The analysis uses a benchmark gold market capitalization of approximately $31.8 trillion and considers Bitcoin’s capped supply of 21 million coins.
The research emphasizes the favorable macroeconomic environment for Bitcoin, noting a drastic increase in global money supply (M2) from around $23 trillion at Bitcoin’s inception to upwards of $100 trillion today. Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts a significant rise in U.S. federal debt, projecting it could climb from about 100% of GDP in 2025 to 156% by 2055. This scenario is expected to accompany average deficits around 6.3% of GDP over the next three decades, further supporting Bitcoin’s role as a store of value.
U.S. Tiger Research points out that recent developments, particularly the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have broadened the investor base. These funds integrate Bitcoin into various financial ecosystems including brokerage services, advisories, and institutional structures. Future adoption may significantly involve registered investment advisors, model portfolios, retirement plans, corporate treasury management, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds.
However, the firm also issued cautions regarding Bitcoin’s inherent volatility and its susceptibility to macroeconomic shifts, noting that regulatory landscapes may vary greatly across regions. Additionally, they identified quantum computing as a potential long-term risk, emphasizing that the sustainability of Bitcoin mining could increasingly rely on durable demand for blockspace as subsidy incentives diminish due to future halvings.
As of midday Tuesday, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $61,700, reflecting a substantial gap from the long-term valuation range proposed by U.S. Tiger Research.
