According to a recent study, approximately 30 percent of the trading volume on the prediction market platform Polymarket originates from the United States. This statistic is particularly striking given that participants in the country are prohibited from using the crypto-based platform. The research led by Harry Crane, a statistician at Rutgers University, estimates that US traders have channeled between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket.
To analyze the platform’s activity, Crane examined what he identified as US-based transactions on various offshore prediction markets from May 2025 to the end of April 2026. The findings revealed that several of the highest-volume markets on Polymarket focused on US-centric events, such as elections and sports. Notably, US traders appeared to be highly active in the platform’s sports section, with estimates indicating they accounted for nearly half of the trading volume in those markets.
Crane commented on the findings, stating, “It’s been known that there are individuals on there, but what hasn’t been known is the extent.” As a member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Innovation Advisory Committee, Crane provides input on how technological advances influence market dynamics. The study was commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, a lobbying organization representing several significant players in the prediction market industry, including Kalshi and Coinbase, although Polymarket is notably not a member.
Polymarket has gained prominence as one of the largest prediction markets globally, allowing users to make trades on various future events, ranging from sports outcomes to cryptocurrency pricing and international military actions. It has also partnered with well-known US media outlets and sports leagues. However, the platform has been banned in the United States since 2022, following a ruling by federal regulators asserting it operated as an unregistered derivatives trading venue. Since December 2025, Polymarket has operated a licensed mobile app called Polymarket US, which reported a trading volume of approximately $1.6 billion in April 2026. In contrast, the crypto-based platform recorded about $9 billion during that same period.
In an effort to circumvent restrictions, US users reportedly employ virtual private networks (VPNs) to disguise their locations, which contradicts Polymarket’s terms of service. This has created challenges in accurately gauging the size of US-based market activity, making this study the first significant public effort to estimate such participation.
Crane’s methodology involved analyzing US traders’ behavioral patterns compared to international users, including the timing of trades and market interests, highlighting a stronger focus on US-centric events among American participants. Although the methodology yields an imprecise estimate, it is considered by researchers as a viable approach to gauge offshore trading activity. Charles Martineau, a finance professor at the University of Toronto Scarborough, acknowledged the limitations while emphasizing the study’s importance.
While the CFTC typically lacks authority over offshore prediction markets, chairman Michael Selig indicated a willingness to exercise extraterritorial jurisdiction against bad actors on a case-by-case basis. However, it remains uncertain whether the agency would target US traders using VPNs to navigate around the ban, especially if they comply with other legal standards.
A notable incident earlier this year involved a special forces soldier in the United States, charged by the Department of Justice for allegedly profiting around $400,000 on Polymarket by exploiting classified information about the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
The research suggests that if Polymarket’s crypto platform continues to maintain its market share, US-based trading volume could potentially soar to $133 billion by the year 2030, indicating a burgeoning underground market in prediction trading activity among US residents.
