Soybean trading has taken a downturn, experiencing losses between 5 to 9 1/4 cents across most contracts on Thursday. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price reflects this decline, dropping 9 1/4 cents to settle at $10.59 1/4.
Meanwhile, soymeal futures are witnessing a moderate uptick, increasing between $1.00 to $1.40, although soy oil futures are declining by 30 to 33 points. Recent updates from the USDA’s Export Sales data reveal that for the 2025/26 marketing year, soybean sales are reported at 211,292 metric tons. This figure falls in the midrange of the expected 150,000 to 400,000 metric tons for the week ending June 4, although it represents a notable decrease of 23.68% compared to the previous week. However, it significantly surpasses sales from the same week last year.
New crop sales for soybeans reached 141,500 metric tons, which is on the lower end of the projections ranging from 100,000 to 350,000 metric tons. This figure demonstrates a substantial drop of 41.77% from the prior week, bringing total new crop sales to 1.032 million metric tons, which is down 7.69% in comparison to the same timeframe last year.
Soymeal sales were recorded at 426,138 metric tons, aligning well within the anticipated range of 150,000 to 600,000 metric tons. In contrast, bean oil sales amounted to 824 metric tons, which fits within an estimated range of net reductions of 2,000 metric tons to net sales of 15,000 metric tons.
Additionally, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates that old crop U.S. stocks remain steady at 340 million bushels, despite a reallocation of 20 million bushels from exports to crush. New crop stocks are similarly stable at 310 million bushels.
On the global front, Brazilian soybean production estimates are maintained at 180 million metric tons, while Argentina’s expectations have risen by 2 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons. The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) has reported a slight increase of 0.12 million metric tons for 2025/26 soybean production, bringing it to 180.25 million metric tons. In Argentina, the Rosario Grains Exchange has revised its corn crop projection upward to 51.5 million metric tons, an increase of 1.5 million metric tons from earlier estimates.
World carryout stocks for the 2025/26 crop year have been adjusted upwards by 0.39 million metric tons to 125.52 million metric tons, largely due to increased supplies from Argentina. New crop stocks have also seen a slight uptick of 0.1 million metric tons, reaching 124.88 million metric tons.
Current soybean prices reflect these market conditions, with July 26 soybeans priced at $11.13 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents, nearby cash standing at $10.59 1/4 (down 9 1/4 cents), August 26 soybeans at $11.19 1/2 (down 8 1/4 cents), and November 26 soybeans at $11.33 1/4 (down 5 1/4 cents). New crop cash is recorded at $10.66 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents.
