Demand for Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant contraction, reaching levels not observed since 2019, as evidenced by data from CryptoQuant. The latest figures indicate that the 30-day growth of combined spot and perpetual futures demand has plummeted to around minus 650,000 BTC. This decline mirrors findings from Capriole Investments, which shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand is nearing the bottom of its four-year range while BTC is trading near $62,800.
Notably, this contraction in demand has occurred only twice before as illustrated on the chart: just before the COVID crash in early 2020 and during the 2022 bear market. The concurrent decline in both spot demand and perpetual futures demand adds to the gravity of the situation, suggesting that the weakness is not limited to leveraged speculation. This trend had previously been highlighted by CryptoQuant as a warning about demand imbalances.
In a recent analysis shared on CryptoQuant, analyst MoneroDV_ discussed the implications of these readings, stating that they signal the beginning of an unstable phase rather than a completed correction. He predicted an increase in volatility followed by a period described as “anesthesia,” characterized by weak momentum and reduced market activity, resulting in prolonged sideways trading. This may lead to psychological stress for investors, arguably more damaging than the preceding sell-off.
Historical patterns indicate that the deep contraction at minus-650,000 BTC often marks the onset of instability rather than a bottoming out. Previous recoveries tended to align more closely with significant support zones observed in March 2020 and late 2022. A similar rebound could signal a potential shift in market sentiment.
Additionally, Capriole Investments’ Charles Edwards has drawn attention to another bearish indicator this week. His metric for Apparent Demand, which assesses whether new purchases can absorb fresh coin issuance alongside previously dormant supply, currently stands at a minus 8,761 BTC. This figure resides within the lowest 2.6% of its four-year history, reinforcing the notion of weak market conditions over the next several weeks. Edwards expressed concern on X, stating, “Yikes. Bitcoin rarely does much positive when Apparent Demand is down.”
However, the implications of the Apparent Demand metric are nuanced, as its predictive power has been described as weak with limited forward correlation. Therefore, while it serves as a secondary bearish indicator, it lacks the same weight as the urgent signal provided by CryptoQuant that is currently framing the bear market discussion.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $62,833, reflecting a 2.7% gain within 24 hours. Nevertheless, it remains nearly 50% below its cycle peak of over $120,000 recorded in late 2025. The persistent outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in recent months have significantly reduced a critical source of structural buying. With demand growth in negative territory, the market stands vulnerable should selling pressure reemerge.
The June low of approximately $59,000 has become a crucial support level, positioned about 6% below current market levels. A decisive dip below this threshold could trigger a downward movement toward the realized price of roughly $53,600, which is considered a historical floor. Conversely, if the price manages to close above $66,000, it might challenge the bearish outlook and suggest a potential resurgence of demand. The reversal of ETF flows seems to be the most likely catalyst for such a scenario.
In summary, both CryptoQuant and Capriole’s data underscore the prevailing bearish sentiment in the market, indicating that Bitcoin must either hold above $59,000 during this period of instability or risk revisiting levels last witnessed at the cycle’s onset.
