Recent insights from Galaxy Digital indicate a shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s cycle low may establish itself at higher price levels compared to previous bear markets. This possibility arises notably due to a lack of speculative trading activity. According to the analysis, a potential bottom for Bitcoin might lie between $62,000 and its realized price, currently assessed at $53,600.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, conducted a comprehensive examination of Bitcoin’s historical peaks and troughs. His findings reveal that the ongoing four-year cycle remains consistent with Bitcoin’s past timing patterns. Notably, the magnitude of peak-to-trough declines has been diminishing over successive market cycles, dropping from significant levels of 85% and 84% in the earlier years to 77% in 2022 and an anticipated 51% in 2026.
Thorn emphasized that the peak reached in October 2025 represented a departure from previous cycle tops. Despite the market’s upward movement, only two out of eleven traditional topping indicators signaled a potential rollover, with the well-regarded Pi Cycle Top indicator failing to activate for the first time. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which juxtaposes market value with realized value, peaked at 2.29; this figure is notably lower than the ratios seen in earlier cycles, which ranged from 2.93 to as high as 5.91.
Highlighting the significance of this calm market peak, Thorn suggested that a muted top effectively raises the potential floor price for Bitcoin. The current network cost basis sits at 43.7% of its all-time high (ATH), compared to lower percentages of approximately 34%, 21%, and 17% recorded in past cycles.
The report further identified that many key indicators signaling a market bottom have yet to materialize. Of thirteen indicators monitored, only four have triggered, leaving several stronger signals still absent. Historical context suggests that previous bottoms occurred roughly 12 to 13 months after market peaks, while the current downturn has persisted for about eight months.
In consideration of Bitcoin’s present cost basis of $53,600, Galaxy puts forth an estimate for the base-case bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000. In a more severe “washout scenario,” the bottom could potentially sink to between $30,000 and $37,000, while a less drastic decline could stabilize around $51,000 to $54,000. However, Thorn cautioned that the market floor is inherently variable; during significant downturns, the movement of coins at a loss can drag the average cost basis down. A decline of 10-30% in this basis could shift the implied floor from approximately $40,000 closer to $28,000.
Current on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant also indicates that Bitcoin is presently situated in a valuation zone associated with major bear-market lows. With recent trading levels around $59,000, Bitcoin stands about 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historical trends have shown that cycle bottoms, including the notable November 2022 dip driven by the FTX incident, typically aligned or fell slightly below the realized price, suggesting the possibility that upcoming lows could once again dip below the cost basis.
On the demand front, data reflects a concerning downward trend, as CryptoQuant reported a total weekly contraction of 652,000 BTC across both speculative futures and spot demand, marking the steepest decline since January 2022. Moreover, the firm’s year-over-year demand gauge has turned negative, indicating a decrease in BTC buyers compared to the previous year. This combination of factors highlights a cautious outlook for Bitcoin as it navigates its current market landscape.
