In a recent client note, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, stated that Bitcoin’s recent decline to approximately $59,000 signifies what he believes is the definitive bottom of the current market cycle. This drop represents a 53% decrease from Bitcoin’s peak of $126,000 reached in October 2025. Kendrick expressed confidence that prices will not revisit the $59,000 level during this cycle.
Looking ahead, Standard Chartered has adjusted its year-end price target for Bitcoin in 2026 to $100,000, suggesting a potential upside of around 70% from current trading levels near $63,000. This marks a downward adjustment from previous, more optimistic projections that had set targets as high as $150,000, reflecting a response to worsening market conditions.
In his analysis, Kendrick described the end of the market downturn, stating, “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.” He expressed a positive outlook for the future, articulating that by the close of 2026, with Bitcoin reaching the anticipated $100,000, investors would reflect on the current phase as an optimal buying opportunity.
However, Kendrick also highlighted that certain critical factors must align for a proper recovery to take hold. Key among these is a resurgence of inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as June 2026 has already experienced outflows exceeding $2 billion. This trend indicates that institutional investors are currently retreating rather than increasing their holdings. Additionally, Kendrick pointed to the importance of corporate treasury investments from major entities as vital to the potential recovery.
Another crucial element he mentioned is a decline in oil prices, which could be linked to possible peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Such an outcome might alleviate inflationary pressures and empower central banks to reduce interest rates, which could further favor asset classes like Bitcoin.
In analyzing the historical context of Bitcoin’s performance, Kendrick recognized that the current 53% correction, although sharp, is comparatively moderate against previous cycles. For instance, the bear market from 2017 to 2018 saw an 84% drawdown, while the 2021 to 2022 cycle experienced approximately a 77% decline. He noted that leverage in the market has also seen a significant reduction, as many traders have unwound their positions—a move often associated with market capitulation.
Throughout these fluctuations, Standard Chartered has maintained a perspective framing each correction as a potential accumulation opportunity, reinforcing their long-term bullish outlook on the cryptocurrency market.
