President Donald Trump has been vocal about the stock market’s performance during his second term, frequently claiming that the increase in 401(k) retirement plan balances has contributed to American wealth. In a speech on June 23 at a Mack truck plant in Pennsylvania, Trump asserted that “the typical 401(k), as you know, is up almost $30,000 in … 13 months.” This statement echoes similar claims made during his February State of the Union address.
While the stock market has indeed seen gains during Trump’s current term, the $30,000 figure he mentioned is not substantiated by data. It significantly inflates actual increases observed in 401(k) balances. Additionally, there is a growing trend of Americans withdrawing funds from their 401(k) accounts early, often due to unexpected financial hardships.
Data from Fidelity Investments, which analyzes corporate 401(k) plans, provides insight into the actual growth of retirement accounts. Fidelity examined over 26,000 plans, spanning approximately 25 million participants, and reported that between December 31, 2024, and March 31, 2026, the average increase in 401(k) balances was about $9,454. This figure represents roughly one-third of Trump’s claimed increase.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index, a key benchmark for the stock market, increased approximately 13% from Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, until his State of the Union address and around 24% leading up to his Pennsylvania speech. While these numbers represent considerable stock market growth, the disparity between this and the growth in 401(k) accounts illustrates a complex financial landscape.
Determining what constitutes a “typical” 401(k) is challenging, given variations based on income, age, and individual company policies. Fidelity’s breakdowns show that the 401(k) gains vary greatly across different age groups. The highest average increase for participants aged 55 to 59 was around $16,000, far less than the asserted $30,000. Experts note that averages can be skewed by those with significantly higher account balances, leading to median increases that are much lower.
Moreover, 401(k) balances are influenced not only by market performance but also by individual’s contributions and potentially employer contributions. According to experts, an increase of $30,000 would require an account balance of at least $200,000, which is not common among U.S. adults.
Fidelity’s assessment reveals that from December 31, 2024, to March 31, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained around 11%, the average 401(k) rose only about 6.5%. This indicates that the growth trajectory of 401(k) accounts does not align closely with the overall stock market growth. Factors such as the typically conservative investment mix found in many retirement plans—which often includes a substantial portion of bonds, which did not yield significant returns during this period—contributed to this discrepancy.
Additionally, the increasing prevalence of hardship withdrawals has further impacted the growth of 401(k) balances. Reports indicate that 6% of Vanguard’s 401(k) participants took hardship withdrawals in 2025, up from 4.8% the previous year and higher than pre-pandemic levels. This trend underscores the reality that, while stock prices may benefit some accounts, many Americans under 59 ½ are facing immediate financial challenges that render the net worth tied up in a 401(k) less impactful for day-to-day expenses.
In summary, while Trump’s assertion reflects an element of truth regarding the stock market’s rise, the lack of supporting data for the $30,000 figure leads to a rating of “Mostly False.” The actual average increase in 401(k) balances does not match the claims being made, revealing a more nuanced and complex economic reality for many Americans.
