Citigroup has significantly revised its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, attributing this adjustment to a decline in investor enthusiasm, unfavorable exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, and sluggish developments regarding U.S. digital asset legislation. In a note issued recently, the financial institution reduced its target for bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000 and similarly adjusted its ether forecast from $3,175 to $2,240.
Currently, bitcoin is trading at approximately $58,864.27, a figure that marks its lowest point since September 2024. This represents a stark decline, having lost half its value compared to its peak of $126,223.18 reached in October 2021. Ether, on the other hand, is priced at about $1,585.63, which is the lowest it has been since April 2025.
The cryptocurrency market has encountered challenges this year, characterized by increased volatility and a mix of investor enthusiasm surrounding major anticipated initial public offerings (IPOs) along with consistent outflows from ETFs that track these digital assets. Both bitcoin and ether are trading below their long-term moving averages, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment among investors.
Citi’s bearish outlook is further illustrated by its worst-case scenario, which envisions bitcoin dropping to $53,000 and ether falling to $1,094 over the next year, contingent upon recessionary macroeconomic conditions and continued negative ETF outflows. The brokerage has adjusted its projections for ETF inflows, now assuming no net inflow over the next twelve months, a significant cut from the previous assumption of $10 billion.
In its analysis, Citi noted that the recent ETF flows have turned negative, with approximately $3.3 billion in outflows from bitcoin ETFs this year alone. The firm anticipates that broader investor adoption of cryptocurrencies will remain stagnant until a new catalyst emerges to revitalize interest.
Additionally, the report emphasized that slow progress in the realm of U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and concerns regarding potential bitcoin sales by treasury companies holding digital assets have negatively impacted investor sentiment. This period of weakness appears to correspond with a rotation of funds into artificial intelligence-related investments, further complicating the landscape for cryptocurrency assets.
