OpenAI and Anthropic, two leading artificial intelligence firms, have taken significant steps towards going public by filing confidential draft S-1 registration statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). OpenAI filed its statement on May 22, while Anthropic followed suit on June 1. Industry analysts speculate that both companies may launch their initial public offerings (IPOs) by late 2026 or early 2027.
Valued at approximately $852 billion following its recent funding round, OpenAI is targeting a market capitalization of $1 trillion during its IPO. This ambitious goal represents a substantial premium—50 times its anticipated annualized revenue run rate of $20 billion by the end of 2025. On the other hand, Anthropic boasts a valuation of $965 billion, with plans for a $1 trillion IPO that would place its share price at an eye-watering 111 times its projected annualized revenue of $9 billion at the same time.
Both companies intend to offer a modest share of their stocks to the public, with an anticipated float of just 5% to 10%. Given the limited supply and the significant market enthusiasm surrounding their debuts, there is potential for their share prices to surge immediately, despite already being considered high relative to their growth rates.
For investors eager to gain early exposure to OpenAI and Anthropic, there are limited options currently available. Accredited investors—those with a net worth exceeding $1 million or an annual income above $200,000—can explore secondary marketplaces such as Forge Global, Hiive, and EquityZen to purchase shares from employees or early backers. Additionally, companies like Robinhood have introduced special-purpose vehicles (SPVs) to facilitate the acquisition of private shares from these companies. Investors can alternatively buy shares or tokenized versions of these SPVs, aiming for indirect exposure.
However, both OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly tightening controls around these secondary sales, holding the legal authority to invalidate any transactional agreements. This creates a risk for investors, as shares acquired through these channels could potentially become worthless before the IPOs occur.
Another investment avenue is through mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that include institutional SPVs supported by OpenAI and Anthropic. Unlike direct shares from secondary markets, these products cannot be voided by the companies, and they may benefit from market hype, resulting in share price inflation. However, this speculative environment also raises concerns that investors might overpay for these proxy investments, reminiscent of challenges faced by those who invested in funds linked to SpaceX prior to its market debut.
Despite the excitement leading up to the IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic, caution may be warranted. There is a likelihood that the initial investor enthusiasm will dissipate as the market scrutinizes their lofty valuations alongside ongoing financial losses. Furthermore, these companies may face tough comparisons with AI infrastructure firms that leverage capital more efficiently, as well as growing competition from open-source AI initiatives in China.
As the market begins to incorporate these factors into their evaluations, it is possible that both OpenAI and Anthropic’s stock prices might revert to their IPO levels or lower, providing investors with a more favorable entry point post-debut. Thus, many experts suggest that waiting until the companies officially go public might be the more prudent approach.
