A prominent trader on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, known as JustWakingUp, has placed a significant wager that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement a 50 basis point cut to interest rates next week. JustWakingUp has emerged as the platform’s most active trader, amassing nearly $400 million in total trading volume and enjoying profits exceeding $2 million.
The trader has staked $15,000 on the prediction that the Fed will lower rates by 50 basis points to a target of 3.75%. Currently, this position is showing a 3% gain, positioning JustWakingUp for a potential payout of approximately $226,000 if the Fed follows through with the anticipated cut.
Despite JustWakingUp’s bold wager, market consensus leans towards a more modest rate reduction. The CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates a robust 91% probability that the Fed will opt for a 25 basis point cut instead. However, expectations for a larger 50 basis point cut have gained traction following a disappointing jobs report released last Friday, which has led to a rise in the odds for this more aggressive easing stance, now estimated at nearly 10%.
Adding to the narrative, a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a staggering downward revision in job creation, noting that the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2025 compared to earlier estimates. This marks the largest annual revision recorded.
In the coming days, traders will be monitoring the release of key economic indicators, including the U.S. Producer Price Index, expected on Wednesday, and the Consumer Price Index on Thursday. Should these reports reveal softer-than-expected data, they could further underpin beliefs in a 50 basis point rate cut, with the potential to positively impact bitcoin and stock market performance.
