On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently tested at a significant support level of $114,000, placing the cryptocurrency at a pivotal crossroads that may determine its upcoming price trajectory. The flagship digital asset has been fluctuating within a range of $110,000 to $116,000. Analysis from Glassnode suggests that breaching the $114,000 mark could trigger a wave of bullish momentum, while falling below $108,000 may instigate cascading selling pressure.
Since reaching its all-time high in mid-August, Bitcoin has retraced into what is described as an “air gap,” effectively redistributing supply beneath the purchase price of recent top-buyers. On-chain metrics indicate a healthy appetite for dip-buying around the $108,000 mark. However, a key issue remains whether this trend signifies mere consolidation or an impending contraction.
Glassnode’s distribution of cost basis highlights three distinct groups of investors influencing price movements:
- Top-buyers (~$113,800): This group requires higher prices to achieve profitability.
- Dip-buyers (~$112,800): Serving as a support layer by providing a cushion against downward movement.
- Short-term holders (~$108,300): This group faces the risk of slipping into losses if the support level fails.
Regaining the $113,800 threshold could restore confidence among top-buyers, whereas a breakdown below the $108,300 mark could lead BTC toward a significant price cluster around $93,000.
During the recent bounce from $108,000 to $114,000, short-term holders—those who have held for 3 to 6 months—averaged daily profits of approximately $189 million. In contrast, recent buyers reported unrealized losses totaling around $152 million per day. This paints a troubling picture reminiscent of stress phases observed in April 2024 and January 2025. For any sustained rally to emerge, new demand will need to effectively absorb selling pressures from both groups.
The current situation is further complicated by a steep decline in demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, with net flows dwindling to merely ±500 BTC per day, significantly lower than earlier peaks in this cycle. As these inflows diminish, the marketplace is increasingly being supported by derivatives. Futures data indicates seller exhaustion alongside a balanced market, yet the three-month annualized basis remains below 10%, reflecting steady but limited leverage.
At this crucial price juncture between $110,000 and $116,000, Bitcoin’s stability appears precarious, largely dependent on derivatives demand. At the same time, the fading inflows from ETFs and indications of decreased conviction among long-term holders could expose the market to vulnerabilities. Investors are urged to closely monitor this critical period.
