Amid expectations of continued momentum in the cryptocurrency market, analysts from Coinbase have expressed optimism for the fourth quarter, highlighting a combination of resilient liquidity, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and favorable regulatory developments. In their analysis, they point out that Bitcoin, valued at $114,435.51, is likely to benefit from these macroeconomic tailwinds and could exceed market expectations.
In a recent report, analysts David Duong and Colin Basco underscored that the immediate risks to current U.S. monetary policy, barring any unexpected fluctuations in energy prices, remain low. They also noted that on-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) is anticipated to create a price floor for digital assets, which could provide stability in the market.
However, the analysts did address concerns regarding seasonality, particularly referencing the trend of Bitcoin experiencing six consecutive declines in September against the dollar from 2017 to 2022. This pattern did not manifest in either 2023 or 2024, offering a potential shift in investor behavior that may indicate a departure from previous seasonal norms. They argued that the limited number of observations and the wide range of outcomes make historical seasonal patterns less reliable as indicators.
Coinbase’s report emphasizes the significance of the current DAT cycle. Publicly available data reveals that disclosed DATs hold over 1 million BTC (approximately $110 billion), 4.9 million ETH (about $21.3 billion), and 8.9 million SOL (around $1.8 billion) as of September 10. The analysts observe a trend where late entrants are increasingly pursuing altcoins that present higher risk, which they believe shifts the market dynamics into a “player-versus-player” phase. This scenario tends to favor larger capitalization tokens while potentially leading to consolidation among smaller DAT players.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Coinbase’s analysts maintain a positive outlook, predicting that robust liquidity, a conducive macroeconomic landscape, and regulatory progress will keep crypto markets firmly supported. This perspective aligns with broader trends of institutional adoption and engagement within the cryptocurrency space, reflecting an evolving landscape for digital assets.
