The cryptocurrency market is increasingly leaning on artificial intelligence (AI) to project price forecasts, particularly in the context of XRP, a prominent token in the space. As of 2025, various large language models have started to offer tailored predictions regarding major cryptocurrencies, prompting discussions about the potential impact on XRP if U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were to achieve $10 billion in inflows by 2026.
This compelling inquiry garners insights from two significant AI platforms, OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Anthropic’s Claude, which have showcased differing perspectives. Alongside human analysts, these models contribute to a complex landscape regarding the future of XRP amid rising ETF interest.
The launch of U.S. spot XRP ETFs in November 2025 marked a significant milestone, quickly accumulating around $1 billion in assets within just four weeks. This early success highlights a marked appetite from investors for regulated exposure to XRP. Furthermore, the establishment of these ETFs has a tangible impact on the market; they hold purchased tokens in custody, effectively reducing the circulating supply. During this same time frame, XRP’s exchange balances saw a substantial drop from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion, a reduction of 45%—indicative of the dual effects of ETF inflows and whale accumulation.
Sustained interest may be bolstered by various factors. In late 2025, over a dozen asset managers submitted applications for spot XRP ETFs, creating a competitive landscape that drives demand. The legal clarity stemming from an SEC settlement in August 2025 further eliminated obstacles for institutional adoption, allowing banks and advisors to engage with XRP without concerns over regulatory complications.
Economic conditions appear favorable as well, with the Federal Reserve beginning to lower interest rates. This trend suggests a capital shift toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Should these macroeconomic conditions remain, a scenario in which AI models predict $10 billion in ETF inflows by late 2026 becomes increasingly plausible.
To achieve this ambitious target, XRP ETF inflows would need to average about $375 million per month over a two-year period. Considering the current market capitalization of $112 billion, an additional $9 billion in custodial demand could absorb approximately 4.5 billion tokens at a price of $2 each, thereby removing nearly 8% of the circulating supply from the market.
In addressing this scenario, ChatGPT suggests that XRP could rise to around $4.40 by early 2026 under normal market conditions without the influx of ETF funds. The AI model indicated that while macroeconomic factors such as bearish sentiment and liquidity challenges from Bitcoin ETFs could weigh on the token’s performance, it anticipates a modest increase from the current trading range of approximately $2. By examining the hypothetical $10 billion in cumulative ETF inflows, ChatGPT posits that this demand could drive XRP prices to a range of $6 to $8, reflecting a significant rise but falling short of a dramatic surge. The forecast hinges on continued interest from retail and institutional investors, along with a stable regulatory environment.
Conversely, Claude’s analysis presents a more bullish scenario, predicting XRP could potentially “break into the $5-15 territory” by the end of 2025, and even reach $15 by 2026 if the trajectory of spot ETFs and banking collaborations continues positively. Claude asserts that the demand generated by ETFs signifies a longer-term structural change in the market rather than just a fleeting liquidity event.
When prompted, Claude suggests that $10 billion in ETF inflows could act as a “catalytic force” leading to prices between $8 and $14. The model emphasizes that if ETFs were responsible for holding around 4 billion tokens, the induced supply tightness would further squeeze the available float in the market. Notable potential exists for XRP’s adoption, especially with its On-Demand Liquidity system expanding and the possibility of new banking partnerships.
Analysts from the traditional finance sector, however, offer a more tempered outlook, forecasting XRP may settle between $5 and $6 by the end of 2026. They emphasize the importance of institutional engagement and underscore that while ETF inflows could stabilize prices, exceeding $5 would likely require broader adoption of XRP through practical use cases.
In comparing both AI models’ predictions, it’s clear they yield varying levels of optimism. ChatGPT underscores the importance of cautious market dynamics and supply limitations, while Claude’s predictions hinge on rapid adoption and continuous growth. Investors are advised to approach these AI-generated forecasts as illustrative rather than definitive, given the intrinsic uncertainties tied to regulatory developments, market behavior, and overall integration of XRP into mainstream financial systems. With $10 billion potentially poised to enter the ETF space, the future of XRP hangs on a complex interplay of factors that no predictive model can encapsulate fully.
