Long-term threats to Bitcoin’s security are emerging more rapidly than the cryptocurrency market anticipates, according to David Duong, the global head of investment research at Coinbase. His comments suggest that significant advances in quantum computing pose a substantial risk to Bitcoin’s integrity, a concern that industry experts and investors are beginning to take seriously.
Duong’s analysis indicates that approximately one-third of all Bitcoin is vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks. This vulnerability arises from the public visibility of the cryptographic outputs associated with the wallets holding these assets, making them susceptible to brute force assaults. While the threat of an outright quantum attack may not be immediate, Duong argues that the risks have shifted from theoretical scenarios to concrete structural issues that could impact a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply.
His remarks echo warnings made by BlackRock in May, when the investment giant highlighted quantum computing risks concerning Bitcoin in its prospectus for the iShares Bitcoin Trust. Even at this early stage in the development of quantum technology, experts warn that if quantum computers achieve a level sufficient to break existing cryptographic methods, the repercussions for Bitcoin could be severe. They would enable unauthorized access to vulnerable wallets, allowing attackers to steal coins with relative ease.
Despite the worries surrounding quantum computing, experts remain divided on how soon this technology might pose a tangible threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography. Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, a quantum computing researcher, has suggested that breakthroughs in quantum technology could occur within the next four to five years.
Duong identified two primary threats posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin. The first is economic: if quantum machines become powerful enough, they could mine Bitcoin blocks much more efficiently than traditional methods. This would disrupt the incentive structure of Bitcoin’s network. The second threat is more immediate and direct, pertaining to the extraction of private keys from public keys, which would allow attackers to redirect funds from compromised wallets.
While he noted that quantum mining is currently a lower-priority concern due to existing technological limitations, Duong emphasized that the security of digital signatures remains a critical issue. With the evolution of quantum computing still in its early stages, the potential ramifications for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market become an increasingly pressing topic of discussion among industry stakeholders.
