In a recent interview, analyst Benjamin Cowen expressed a cautious outlook for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency market navigates turbulent waters. He predicts that Bitcoin may achieve a rally as the year ends, but he stresses that investors should remain vigilant.
Cowen anticipates that Bitcoin will likely hit a September low aligned with its 20-week moving average, a pattern reminiscent of its trajectory during the 2017 cycle. He cautions that a dip below the significant 50-week moving average, which hovers around the $95,000 to $96,000 mark, would signal the potential end of the current bull market.
During this period of market adjustment, Cowen believes Bitcoin will absorb liquidity from alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins), predicting that altcoins will underperform until Ethereum reaches sustainable all-time highs. He advises investors to lean heavily towards Bitcoin, suggesting an 80/20 allocation between BTC and ETH during September and October. This strategy could yield the most favorable risk-adjusted returns, according to Cowen. He recommends shifting back to altcoins only after Bitcoin achieves new highs.
As for altcoin expectations, Cowen provides conservative price targets, estimating Ethereum’s value to peak between $6,000 and $8,000, while XRP’s ceiling may be in the range of $5 to $7. He attributes this tempered outlook to a variety of macroeconomic pressures, including seasonal market weaknesses, Federal Reserve policies, and an anticipated pullback in the S&P 500, which collectively support his correction thesis.
Cowen views the $95,000 threshold as a pivotal point that will test the integrity of the bull market. He notes that the time left in the cycle is limited, with a likely bear market anticipated by 2026.
Interestingly, Cowen also draws a parallel between gold’s potential breakout timing and Bitcoin’s anticipated September low, suggesting that both could mirror trends observed in 2024 when gold attempted and eventually succeeded in breaking out. He indicates that such a breakout could coincide with a local low for Bitcoin.
Overall, Cowen’s analysis underscores a complex interplay between Bitcoin’s performance, altcoin dynamics, and overarching macroeconomic conditions as the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve amidst challenges and opportunities.
