Bitcoin’s price continues to be a focal point in financial discussions, yet a notable shift is occurring among analysts and institutional strategists. Rather than solely concentrating on whether Bitcoin can rebound in the near term, many market observers are now questioning the reliability of the structural signals that have historically structured Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
This change comes amid signs of waning demand, increasing exchange flows, and a split in analyst opinions. Some analysts posit that Bitcoin is entering a typical post-peak correction phase, while others speculate the cryptocurrency may be breaking away from its established cyclical patterns.
Daan Crypto Trades highlights the challenges to Bitcoin’s historical seasonal trends, pointing out that while the first quarter is usually favorable for Bitcoin, the previous fourth quarter did not deliver as expected. “2025 has been messy, with massive inflows and treasury accumulation matched by significant selling from traditional investors,” he noted. The crucial test, he believes, will come in the first quarter of 2026 when Bitcoin could either confirm the continuation of its four-year cycle or indicate a more profound shift.
The discussion about Bitcoin’s trajectory is underscored by a notable mismatch between ETF inflows and long-term holder actions, which are damping the bullish impact these inflows typically have. This structural friction is further mirrored in US market data. According to Kyle Doops, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium—an indicator of US institutional demand—has remained in the negative for over a week, suggesting that demand in the US is lagging behind broader market trends. “Less aggressive institutional buying and a cautious capital environment signal hesitation rather than panic,” he commented.
Adding to this complexity, exchange flows are showing increased levels historically associated with late-cycle conditions. Jacob King has pointed out that monthly exchange flows have surged to $10.9 billion, the highest since May 2021. He argues that such elevated exchange activity usually indicates increased selling pressure, as investors liquidate assets or hedge against market downturns, reinforcing the narrative of a potential market top.
Despite the structural changes, on-chain analyst Ali Charts argues for continuity in Bitcoin’s pricing patterns. He notes that historically, Bitcoin has followed a reliable timeline—from market bottom to peak and back again—implying that the current market may be within its corrective phase, suggesting potential further downside.
At the institutional level, consensus remains elusive but disciplined. Sean Farrell from Fundstrat reflects on the challenge of Bitcoin’s current valuation landscape, marked by ETF redemptions and broader market uncertainty. However, he maintains a bullish outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum in the long term, anticipating potential new all-time highs before year-end, albeit within a shorter bear market structure.
This viewpoint contrasts with that of Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, who perceives Bitcoin’s recent peak as a critical juncture and forecasts a tougher year ahead, projecting support to form in the $65,000 to $75,000 range. Timmer’s focus remains on historical cycles, suggesting that Bitcoin’s trajectory may still mirror its past.
In conclusion, the perspectives emerging around Bitcoin illustrate a departure from narrow price fixation. The upcoming moves of Bitcoin could redefine not just market sentiments but also challenge the frameworks that have governed its behavior for more than a decade, leaving analysts and investors to ponder the cryptocurrency’s future as it navigates this evolving landscape.
