ARK Invest’s latest research report, “Big Ideas 2026,” presents a significant forecast for the digital asset market, predicting it could reach approximately $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin expected to capture around 70% of that total, translating to roughly $16 trillion. This bullish outlook is largely attributed to increasing adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate treasuries.
The report indicates a notable transition in decentralized finance (DeFi), where the focus shifts from underlying networks to applications that generate fees. As these protocols continue to scale, they are beginning to compete effectively with traditional fintech platforms regarding revenue efficiency and assets under management.
Tokenization is also highlighted as a pivotal trend, with ARK projecting the value of tokenized real-world assets could soar to $11 trillion by 2030. The report emphasizes the integration of Bitcoin, DeFi applications, and tokenized assets into the broader landscape of global capital markets, suggesting these elements will play crucial roles in the future of crypto development by 2026.
Experts underscore that regulatory clarity will be essential for translating innovation into widespread adoption. Joni Pirovich, founder and CEO of Crystal aOS, remarked on the current landscape, noting the desire for crypto-native financial platforms to achieve global acceptance while managing fragmented compliance requirements.
Bitcoin’s evolution into a legitimate institutional asset class is evident, with U.S. ETFs and public companies reportedly holding 12% of the total Bitcoin supply, up from 8.7% early in 2025. This maturation demonstrates growing institutional interest, which may further propel Bitcoin’s prominence. Sudhakar Lakshmanaraja, founder of Digital South Trust, stated that the future trajectory of crypto hinges more on regulatory frameworks than mere innovation.
In terms of tokenized assets, the report shows a massive tripling to $19 billion in 2025, with expectations to reach $11 trillion by 2030. Key players like BlackRock, with its $1.7 billion BUIDL fund—accounting for 20% of tokenized Treasuries—along with contributions from firms like Tether and Paxos, are driving this growth.
DeFi applications have also shown impressive revenue generation, peaking at $3.8 billion in 2025. Innovative platforms like Hyperliquid have reported remarkable efficiencies, illustrating how lean operations can yield substantial returns. With many protocols now reported to exceed $1 million in monthly recurring revenue, the DeFi landscape appears increasingly robust.
Looking ahead, Wook Lee, Founder and CEO of EDENA Capital Partners, noted that the convergence of mature regulatory systems and institutional networks will redefine capital formation globally, positioning tokenized markets as essential engines for economic activity within the digital asset ecosystem.
The report also monitors Bitcoin’s declining volatility, highlighting that average drawdowns from all-time highs have reached their shallowest levels in 2025 across various timeframes. At present, Bitcoin is trading just below $90,000, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% in the past 24 hours but a decline of over 6% over the week. This fluctuation follows geopolitical developments, including comments from President Donald Trump regarding tariffs on European nations.
In addition to its focus on crypto, ARK’s report also delves into topics such as AI infrastructure, autonomous vehicles, and distributed energy. Interestingly, in a prediction market named Myriad—owned by Decrypt’s parent company—users currently view the crypto sector as potentially more vulnerable to a bubble burst than AI, estimating a nearly 55% chance of an imminent downturn in crypto markets.
