Arthur Hayes has expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s future, suggesting that it could reach new all-time highs by 2026, despite its underwhelming performance relative to gold and technology stocks in 2025. In his analysis, Hayes noted that for Bitcoin to regain its momentum, a shift in monetary conditions is necessary. He explained, “If gold and the Nasdaq have the juice, how is Bitcoin going to get its groove back? Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen.”
Liquidity serves as a pivotal catalyst for Bitcoin’s resurgence, according to Hayes, who identified several potential factors that might contribute to a significant increase in dollar liquidity by 2026. He pointed to the possibility of the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet through “money printing,” a decrease in mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, and a shift toward more aggressive lending by commercial banks to U.S. government-backed strategic industries.
Hayes made an intriguing connection between liquidity and U.S. military spending, stating, “The US will continue to flex its military muscle, and to do so requires the production of weapons of mass destruction financed by the commercial banking system.” This perspective suggests that national defense priorities may play a crucial role in influencing the liquidity landscape.
Reflecting on the performance disparities of 2025, Hayes highlighted that while dollar liquidity shrank, Bitcoin experienced a corresponding decline. In contrast, technology stocks—primarily driven by advancements in artificial intelligence—remained resilient. He commented, “The liquidity didn’t support our Bitcoin portfolios. But let’s not draw the wrong conclusions from Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance. It was, as it always is, a liquidity story.”
The statistics from 2025 further illustrate this performance gap: technology stocks emerged as the top-performing sector in the S&P 500, achieving a total return of 24.6%. During the same period, Bitcoin saw a decline of 14.40%, whereas gold surged by 44.40%, as reported by Curvo data. Despite the challenges faced in 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a resurgence recently, showing a 12.20% increase over the last 30 days according to CoinMarketCap.
Hayes described Bitcoin as “monetary technology,” emphasizing its potential value in the face of fiat currency debasement, and referenced a long-term trend illustrating the decline in purchasing power depicted in Bitcoin’s dollar devaluation chart. This narrative positions Bitcoin as a significant player in a future where monetary dynamics may shift dramatically.
