Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and current head of the crypto venture fund Maelstrom, has recently offloaded a significant portion of his personal holdings in Hyperliquid’s HYPE tokens, a move that has raised eyebrows in the crypto community. This decision comes shortly after Hayes publicly predicted that HYPE could potentially experience a staggering 126-fold increase in value.
According to blockchain analytics service Lookonchain, Hayes sold 96,628 HYPE tokens, valued at approximately $5.1 million. This transaction netted him a profit of roughly $823,000—representing a 19% gain within the span of just a month. Following this sale, Hayes took to social media platform X to confirm the move while displaying his characteristic irreverence, quipping about needing to pay a deposit for a new Ferrari. This remark incited a backlash from some traders, who accused him of artificially inflating the value of HYPE before quickly cashing out.
In response to the criticism, Hayes defended his actions, asserting that the sale was prompted by concerns expressed by his firm, Maelstrom. He maintained that the potential for HYPE to grow was still intact, suggesting that the predicted 126-fold increase could still be achievable by 2028.
The discussion around the future of HYPE took a serious turn when Maelstrom released a detailed analysis warning of significant upcoming supply unlocks. Starting November 29, a total of 237.8 million HYPE tokens will begin to vest linearly over a two-year period, resulting in nearly $500 million worth of tokens entering circulation every month. At current valuations, this amounts to an oversupply of approximately $11.9 billion. Furthermore, Maelstrom’s analysis indicated that the token buyback program could only absorb about 17% of this influx, leading to a potential excess supply of $410 million each month.
The firm emphasized that while such supply shocks are typical for rapidly growing protocols, the large allocations that will become liquid could incentivize early developers and insiders to sell off their holdings. Moreover, it noted that even substantial decentralized autonomous treasury deals, like Sonnet’s $583 million HYPE raise, would likely be insufficient to counterbalance the upcoming supply unlocks.
Despite his recent sale, Hayes has not abandoned his optimistic outlook for HYPE. He reiterated his earlier projection that Hyperliquid could be likened to a “decentralized Binance,” built on assumptions of a burgeoning $10 trillion stablecoin market and Hyperliquid capturing a significant share of trading activity similar to that of Binance. He characterized the upcoming supply unlocks as hurdles rather than insurmountable obstacles, maintaining that 2028 is still a considerable distance away.
As Hyperliquid continues to establish itself as a leading entity in the decentralized perpetual futures space, the market’s ability to absorb nearly $12 billion in new supply remains to be seen. This could ultimately determine whether Hayes’s forecasts hold water or turn out to be overly ambitious.
