In a recent analysis, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, provided insights into market trends, while new data from the IRS sheds light on current tax refund trends for American taxpayers. As of February 6, the average tax refund issued to individuals has seen a significant rise, reaching $2,290, which is a 10.9% increase compared to last year’s average of $2,065 for the same period.
Despite the increase in average refunds, the IRS has reported a decline in the number of refunds issued, with approximately 7.4 million refunds processed as of early February, an 8.1% decrease from nearly 8.1 million refunds during the same timeframe last year. However, the overall amount of refunds disbursed has increased by 1.9%, climbing from nearly $16.7 billion to about $17 billion, which has contributed to the growth in average refund sizes.
The IRS also highlighted that the average direct deposit refund has risen to $2,388, up 10.3% from last year’s average of $2,165 at this point in the filing season. This indicates that while the number of tax returns processed is down, the value of refunds is showing a positive trend.
According to the IRS, nearly 22.4 million tax returns have been received so far in the 2026 filing season, reflecting a 5.2% decrease from the almost 23.6 million returns received during the same period last year. This slowdown in filings could impact taxpayer behavior as they navigate the filing process.
For those concerned about the timing of their refunds, the IRS provides a “Where’s my refund?” tool that allows taxpayers to check the status of their refunds online. Typically, e-filed returns can expect processing within up to 21 days, while mailed returns can take six weeks or longer. Delays may occur if a return requires corrections or additional review.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that taxpayers can anticipate “very large” refunds this filing season, encouraging individuals to consider setting up direct deposit to expedite the receipt of their refunds. For e-filers, refund status can often be accessed within 24 hours of submission. Taxpayers submitting amended returns should be aware that these can take longer to process, with up to three weeks for the return to appear in the IRS system and up to 16 weeks for full processing.
For those who need to track the status of amended returns, the IRS has created a dedicated tool to assist taxpayers in monitoring their filings and any related refunds. This comprehensive suite of resources aims to enhance the experience for taxpayers during the filing season.
