As the Big East Conference gears up for its upcoming basketball season with conference play starting on December 13, the mood is cautiously optimistic, yet tinged with uncertainty. The league, which boasts just 11 teams, has historically performed well in the NCAA tournament, with a strong track record of securing bids and achieving victories once in the tournament. However, recent trends suggest a notable shift.
Over the past four years, approximately 40% of Big East teams have made it to the NCAA tournament. This has been largely credited to the coaching prowess of figures like Jay Wright and current head coach Danny Hurley at UConn. The Huskies, in particular, have set a remarkable precedent with a perfect 12-0 record in the tournament during 2023 and 2024, contributing to the league’s distinguished NCAA winning percentage.
However, recent seasons have not been without challenges. Two years prior, the Big East faced difficulties with “bid stealers,” ultimately denying NCAA invitations for strong contenders like Seton Hall and St. John’s. Last season’s five bids seemed promising, but disappointment followed as no team, including the second-seeded Red Storm, advanced past the first weekend.
This season, the outlook appears grim, with UConn and St. John’s being the only teams considered locks for NCAA tournament spots. The Big East may find itself facing its lowest number of tournament bids in history, which raises concerns within the conference. Projected numbers show at least two bids and possibly three, with an average expectation of around 4.6 bids, placing the conference fifth among its peers. Its current NCAA tournament win record stands at 37-21, accounting for a 53.5% success rate.
Despite these challenges, UConn remains a top contender, with aspirations of clinching a third national title in four years. However, experts warn that the competition they will face is expected to be more formidable than in previous seasons. The Huskies have distinguished themselves at the top of the conference and will need to maintain that edge as they enter conference play.
For St. John’s, expectations were high at the season’s start, but their performance has been more average. While they still appear likely to secure a tournament spot, their chances of achieving a high seed have become less certain.
Several other teams are in contention, including Villanova, Seton Hall, and Creighton, all hovering around the tournament bubble. Villanova and Seton Hall are anticipated to fluctuate between “Last Four In” and “First Four Out.” In contrast, Creighton faces an uphill battle and needs to improve rapidly to secure a place in the postseason.
One team turning heads is the Butler Bulldogs, ranked ninth in the preseason poll. Under the leadership of Thad Matta, Butler has exceeded expectations with early season victories against notable opponents, indicating that they could be a sleeper candidate for a bid.
Other teams, such as the Providence Friars, Xavier Musketeers, and Georgetown Hoyas, are potential dark horses that could join the bubble discussions as the season progresses. However, Marquette and DePaul appear to lack the necessary talent to make significant upward movement.
Key matchups to monitor include a showdown on December 23 between Villanova and Seton Hall, pitting two bubble teams against each other, and significant clashes in February when UConn faces St. John’s and Villanova, both of which could have postseason implications.
As the conference gets underway, all eyes will be on how teams navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities, with hopes of turning around the Big East’s current trajectory and making a mark in the NCAA tournament.
