Bitcoin investors are facing significant turbulence as Jon Glover, a respected Elliott Wave analyst and Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, issues a cautionary forecast. Glover, known for his adept market predictions, has diverged from the prevailing bullish sentiment, suggesting that the bitcoin bull market which began early in 2023 may have reached its conclusion. This comes on the heels of a dramatic drop in bitcoin’s value from $126,000 to approximately $104,000.
Glover predicts that a sustained bear market could push bitcoin prices down to $70,000 or even lower, indicating a potential decline of over 35% from the current market rate of around $108,000. “I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover stated, adding that he expects bitcoin to trade within a range of $70,000 to $80,000, with the possibility of even steeper drops.
While Glover acknowledges the potential for bitcoin to rebound and retest its previous highs near $124,000 or slightly exceed that, he emphasizes that the overall trend has turned bearish. This shift suggests that investors should prepare for lower prices in the coming months.
The foundation of Glover’s analysis lies in the Elliott Wave Theory, introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938. This theory posits that collective investor psychology moves in discernible cycles, forming a five-wave structure comprising three impulse waves and two corrective waves. Bitcoin’s recent bullish five-wave pattern initiated in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, and peaked in early October with a record above $126,000.
Initially, Glover had forecasted that wave 5 would elevate prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. This prediction was made in early August, even in the face of rising bearish concerns following a sharp drop from $120,000 to $112,000. Despite the anticipated surge, momentum faltered beyond the $125,000 mark, leading Glover to express concerns that a failure to maintain prices above this level would dampen the bullish narrative. Ultimately, bitcoin’s descent to $105,000 last week solidified Glover’s assertion that the bull run had come to an end.
In his analysis, Glover poses a critical question: are current trends indicative of a potential move towards $145,000, or do they signify an end to this market peak? His conclusion is unequivocal: “THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
Supporting Glover’s bearish outlook is historical data indicating that bitcoin typically exhibits a pattern of peaking followed by a bear market approximately 18 months post-halving events. The most recent halving took place in April 2024. Additionally, data from Amberdata reveals that BTC’s Deribit-listed put options—financial instruments that provide downside protection—are trading at a premium compared to calls set to expire in September 2026. This trend suggests that many traders are bracing for potential downside risks that could extend well into the following year.
