For months, Bitcoin has exhibited a patterned volatility that has frustrated bullish investors, particularly in relation to the Nasdaq 100 index. When the tech-focused stock gauge sees a decline, Bitcoin often mirrors that trend, plummeting at a steeper rate. Conversely, during periods of rally for the Nasdaq, Bitcoin’s gains tend to lag significantly behind.
This trend continued last week with the Nasdaq 100 experiencing a substantial drop of 2% on Thursday, which saw Bitcoin succumb to a sharper decline, falling approximately 4%. The following day brought a modest recovery for tech stocks; however, Bitcoin’s response remained tepid and failed to replicate the upward momentum.
As the calendar turns to the final six weeks of 2025, the disparity in performance between the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin is stark. The Nasdaq has enjoyed a year-to-date gain of 20%, while Bitcoin’s performance is meager in comparison, showing an increase of only about 3%.
Delving into the statistics, a recent report from Wintermute’s Jasper De Maere offers insight into the underlying dynamics at play. He argues that the observed relationship between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 isn’t a breakdown in correlation—currently reported at approximately 0.8—but rather represents an asymmetrical response to market conditions.
De Maere describes this phenomenon using the concept of “performance skew.” When the market is in a risk-on environment, Bitcoin tends to underperform relative to equities, reflecting a “negative skew.” In times of market selloff, Bitcoin tends to react more aggressively, leading to sharper declines. This skew has remained persistently negative, according to De Maere’s evaluation over a rolling 365-day period.
The factors contributing to this troubling skew include a diminishing interest in Bitcoin among both institutional and retail investors, as many have increasingly turned to equities for speculative opportunities. Additionally, there are notable liquidity concerns. With ETF inflows slowing, stablecoin issuance leveling off, and overall market depth on exchanges remaining below levels seen earlier in 2024, the ecosystem appears strained.
Despite the dim outlook, De Maere points out that historically, similar patterns of negative skew are observed not during market peaks but rather as markets approach troughs. This observation suggests that when Bitcoin consistently falls more sharply on days where equities decline, it may indicate a state of investor exhaustion rather than resilience or strength.
In essence, De Maere’s analysis implies that Bitcoin investors have been exhibiting signs of fatigue, a trend that has persisted for some time and raises questions about the cryptocurrency’s potential for a resurgence in the near future.
