Bitcoin has made headlines this September by defying traditional seasonal trends, achieving an impressive 8% increase. This marks the most significant gain for the cryptocurrency in September since 2012, making it an anomaly in a month that has historically been challenging for Bitcoin investors. Traditionally, September has been seen as a weak month for Bitcoin, with average losses hovering around 8%.
Currently, if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, September 2025 would require a substantial 20% increase to claim the title of Bitcoin’s strongest September ever. The current trends indicate that this year’s performance is indeed noteworthy, as Bitcoin’s previous highest September return was recorded at nearly 19.8% back in 2012. In contrast, September 2024 saw only a modest rise of 7.3%.
The stakes are particularly high this year, as similar patterns in risk assets suggest a peak in the next bull market. Historical trends indicate that with strong performance in September, the potential for Bitcoin to reach new highs increases significantly. While major assets like gold and the S&P 500 continue to experience price discovery, Bitcoin has shown resilience, coiling around its recent highs.
Interestingly, the price volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to levels that analysts describe as highly unusual for a bull market. Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin’s volatility has been in decline since April, reaching levels not seen in over a decade. This drop in volatility contradicts expectations based on past cycles, where sharp price swings were common. Notably, recent price drawdowns from past all-time highs have remained relatively mild, with the largest drawdown in 2025 peaking at just 30%. Historically, such drawdowns could reach as high as 80%.
Despite the lower volatility, the performance of Bitcoin in this bull market appears to be hampered when compared to previous cycles. Nonetheless, analysts remain optimistic about the future. Earlier reports suggested that Bitcoin might experience gains of up to 50%, following notably low readings from the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index.
Investment in cryptocurrencies involves inherent risks, and individuals are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making any financial decisions in this fluctuating market.
