Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to find its support level around $55,000 by late 2026, according to recent analyses from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant. The prediction suggests a potential market rebound following this anticipated decline, marking a decisive phase in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
In a detailed “Quicktake” blog post, contributor Sunny Mom outlined the necessary conditions for identifying this “iron bottom” in the market cycle. Mom emphasized that the bear market bottoming process can be lengthy and exhausting, stating, “Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion.” Although the market appears to be halfway through this phase, a final downturn is expected before trends shift.
CryptoQuant highlighted the reliance on the market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score as critical in understanding Bitcoin’s price movements. This metric compares the last price at which Bitcoin was traded against the total market cap, helping to determine overvalued or undervalued zones. Currently, the MVRV Z-score remains above zero, indicating that while the market is cooling, it has not yet reached a state of despair typically associated with market bottoms. Historically, each significant bear market bottom has been marked by the MVRV Z-score dipping into negative territory. The last occurrence of this was during the 2022 bear market.
Based on existing data, Mom predicts that the MVRV Z-score will dip below zero sometime between October and December of 2026, leading to a target price for Bitcoin in the range of $55,000 to $60,000.
The analysis also anticipates a two-year accumulation phase following the predicted market bottom. Earlier this year, another report noted that various Z-score values had already been trending below previous bear market lows, suggesting that Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its macro drawdown. Moreover, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s halving events, with the next scheduled for April 2028, is expected to contribute to a market peak approximately 12 to 18 months post-halving. Consequently, CryptoQuant projects that late 2029 may see Bitcoin reach a new all-time high during its next significant bull run.
Investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring these indicators as Bitcoin continues to navigate its way through the tumultuous waters of crypto markets, searching for signs of stability and future growth.
