Bitcoin (BTC) is poised for a significant breakout, with current market activity signaling a potential surge toward $130,000. The onset of October, often referred to as “Uptober,” has seen an impressive $1.8 billion in futures volume on Binance, with buyers outpacing sellers. Analysis from CryptoQuant contributor Pelinay P.A. indicates that taker buy volume on the exchange has consistently dominated sell volume, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment among traders.
Presently, Bitcoin’s trading range lies between $110,000 and $120,000, influenced mainly by spot demand and long-term holders rather than excessive leverage. Interestingly, Binance’s funding rates remain neutral to slightly negative. Typically, rising prices lead to positive funding rates as more traders go long. However, current conditions suggest a period of accumulation which could precede a sharp upward movement when the buying pressure successfully breaches resistance levels.
Market observers noted recently that a “gap” in CME Bitcoin futures hinted at a potential dip back to $110,000. Historically, such gaps fill quickly, with a recorded hit rate of 100% this year. Yet, despite selling efforts, Bitcoin maintained its upward momentum and did not revisit the lower level.
Conditions further bolster Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory, as indicated by the STH-MVRV pricing corridor, which tracks the profitability among short-term holders. The upper boundary of this corridor aligns with the crucial $130,000 mark, where profit-taking has historically surged.
In terms of demand, Bitcoin is trading at a premium of about $92 on Coinbase compared to Binance, highlighting significant interest from U.S. institutional buyers. Despite recent profit-taking reaching $3.7 billion in a single day—the fifth-highest in 2025—the market absorbed this selling pressure without flipping bearish, underscoring robust buying capacity.
Support for the ongoing bullish trend is also emerging from recent inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $600 million added in just one day, lifting the weekly total to $2.25 billion. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Open Interest in the derivatives market has surged to a record $45.3 billion, indicating an unprecedented level of leverage.
Alongside, IBIT options related to BlackRock’s spot ETF are gaining significant traction, with Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noting that open interest in IBIT options is now exceeding that of futures. This development reflects Wall Street’s increasing influence in Bitcoin price discovery.
Technical analysis further supports a bullish outlook. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 69, well below overbought levels, and Coinglass data reveals that none of the 30 peak-cycle signals have been activated. The market’s resilience is evident as Bitcoin rebounded strongly from the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), gaining over 10% and nearing the $124,000 range.
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently testing the $120,000 level after a robust rebound from the $108,000–$110,000 support zone. The $115,000 region has transitioned from resistance to support, reinforcing bullish momentum. Immediate upside targets are set at $126,500, where trendline and horizontal resistance converge, with a potential extension to $132,000 if the upward momentum sustains.
Nonetheless, a failure to maintain the $120,000 level could result in a retest of the $114,000–$115,000 area. However, the overarching market structure remains bullish, laying the groundwork for possible upward momentum toward $130,000.
