A notable analysis by Joao Wedson, founder of the analytical platform Alphractal, suggests that Bitcoin could experience significant price fluctuations in the near future. By early 2026, Wedson predicts the cryptocurrency could plummet to as low as $50,000. However, he also indicates that a short-term spike might see Bitcoin reaching $140,000.
Wedson’s insights follow a notable period in Bitcoin’s history, particularly highlighting the October 2025 timeframe as a potential turning point that could signify the end of its ongoing fractal cycle. He notes that Bitcoin’s current trading price of $110,675 is about 10.6% lower than its all-time high of $124,128, achieved on August 14.
The analyst suggests that Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal moment akin to previous instances in which the cryptocurrency transitioned from strong growth to a sustained decline. He expresses caution, indicating that the interpretation of market cycles shouldn’t be based solely on historical charts. He entertains the possibility that Bitcoin might briefly rally to around $100,000 before potentially soaring to new heights.
Wedson emphasizes that the current market landscape is significantly different, thanks to a surge in institutional investment and Bitcoin’s emerging status as a serious asset class alongside traditional stocks. He raises concerns about whether established market models, such as the typical four-year Bitcoin cycle, remain relevant in today’s environment, contemplating if the cryptocurrency market will navigate through speculation driven by ETFs and the increasing influence of major market participants.
One of the key risks acknowledged is a possible recession in the United States, which could negatively affect the crypto market. As debate continues around the sustainability of historical patterns in Bitcoin’s price behavior, questions linger regarding the future trajectory of the cryptocurrency.
Traders are observing the $100,000 threshold closely, recognizing it as a critical support level. Analyst Killa has stated that whether Bitcoin can maintain this level or break below it will dictate its trajectory—either pushing towards new highs or deepening a correction. Similarly, Michaël van de Poppe from MN Capital cautioned that if Bitcoin fails to break through existing resistance levels, a new low may be on the horizon.
Investor Ted Pillows forecasts that Bitcoin will show bearish trends in September but anticipates a “powerful rally” in the following quarter, likely culminating in market peaks by December 2025 or January 2026, reminiscent of cycles past.
Amidst these varying predictions, Frank Fetter from Capital Management observed a rare signal which might indicate that Bitcoin has reached its price bottom, adding to the complex narrative surrounding the leading cryptocurrency’s future.
