Bitcoin is currently navigating a crucial macro week, trading around $68,600 after a tumultuous start to 2026. The cryptocurrency has faced significant fluctuations, including a sharp decline from its 2025 peak above $126,000. Market sentiment remains fragile as traders remain on high alert for U.S. economic data, with ongoing tariff tensions, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts contributing to an environment of uncertainty among risk assets.
With U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day, trading volume is lighter than usual, heightening the potential for volatility as key economic data is set to emerge in the middle of the week. Traders are particularly focused on four critical reports: the January FOMC minutes, initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14, the final revision of Q4 GDP, and December’s PCE inflation figures.
The January FOMC minutes, to be released on Wednesday, are expected to set the mood for the week. In its last meeting, the Fed maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, indicating a cautious stance due to resilient growth and continuing inflation pressures in the services sector. Traders will be scrutinizing the minutes for insights into the Fed’s internal discussions regarding inflation risks and labor market strength. A hawkish tone in these minutes could lead to expectations of “higher for longer” interest rates, which in the past has resulted in significant pullbacks for Bitcoin. Conversely, any dovish indications might raise hopes for rate cuts, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards the $70,000 mark.
On Thursday, the initial jobless claims report will provide a real-time gauge of the labor market’s health—an essential factor for the Fed. Analysts predict around 220,000 new claims, a reduction from 227,000 previously. A reading below 210,000 would suggest strength in the labor market, likely dampening rate cut expectations and putting downward pressure on Bitcoin. In contrast, a figure exceeding 230,000 could signal weakening employment conditions, which historically tend to favor risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially leading to price increases.
Friday will see the release of the final revision for the Q4 2025 GDP, with expectations set at 2.5% annualized growth—significantly lower than the initial estimate of 4.4%. Should the revision fall below 2.3%, it could strengthen narratives of economic slowdown, possibly boosting Bitcoin by 3–6%. On the other hand, a strong figure above 2.7% may complicate the market outlook, reinforcing expectations for sustained monetary tightening, which could weigh on crypto prices.
Finally, the PCE inflation report is anticipated to be the week’s most impactful catalyst. The market is projecting a monthly increase of 0.3% for both headline and core PCE, with year-over-year figures expected around 2.8–2.9%. A cooler-than-expected reading of 0.2% could embolden markets to price in rate cuts, potentially catalyzing a significant rally in Bitcoin prices upward of 4–8%. Conversely, a hotter print could reinforce inflation worries, leading to a potential drop of 3–5% as yields rise.
Overall, with Bitcoin currently stabilizing near $68,600, the cryptocurrency remains extremely sensitive to impending economic data releases. Dovish surprises could reignite bullish sentiment, while hawkish indicators may further push prices down towards the $60,000–$65,000 range. As the market braces for these critical data points, traders will be closely monitoring liquidity signals in the days ahead.
